Here we go again?

[FIGHT ON]

simonov. You should check that hike out sometime. (after the snow melts) (or if you are an expert on traverse stuff in snow and ice) I'm sure you could do it. I'm not saying its easy, it's really hard, you just have to start really really early and be really really hydrated and carry tons of water. And know the route. I did it twice last year and was lucky because there wasn't any snow on the trail. Thinking back I remember that traverse area, where if there was snow or ice, I would have been in trouble. Not because I would have tried to cross it, (I may have) but because if I would have turned around to go back down, I think I would have died because I had used almost all my water. Not realizing how hot it had become below. It's a long long way back at that point. Man I feel lucky I didn't face that. I tell you I'm not going back until that section is snow free. Does anyone know exactly how many people have died/rescued after reaching that area and either slipped or turned back and got cooked alive?

[FIGHT ON]

good idea jimbo

[simonov]

That's reassuring to know that Verdi has done this before. Still, that is a pretty big group. What size groups has he done in the past?

I don't know. He usually gets about half the people who sign up for a hike like this (far away from LA and also tough = easy to decide on the morn you got something else to do that day = high flake factor). One reason I have avoided some of his hikes in the past is because of the large numbers of people who sign up (I don't like crowds), but the hikes I have been on with him didn't have nearly as many as were signed up.

Also, from his wording, I get the impression he's not doing any screening. That's a bit worrisome.

There isn't much screening with OCHBC, though I hear ODC operates a little differently. I think the participants are self-selecting, with language like this:

Total elevation gain: 11,000' + -
San Jacinto Summit: 10,800'
Total mileage: 23 Miles
Total trail time: About 7 to 15 hours
Total waking hours: 12 to 22 hours
Start Time: 4:00 AM.

That will weed out almost everyone who isn't really ready for the hike. The small number of people who maybe shouldn't go and are still thinking about it will probably drop out after his subsequent e-mails, where he provides more details about the hike, carpools, water requirements, procedures, etc. This time he is talking about radios and lights and stuff, which he doesn't usually mention. It's pretty clear this isn't another stroll through the park.

[Hikin_Jim]

Hmm. Good points. Details like that will get people thinking. The 0400 start time will weed out some of the non serious as well.

OK, well, I still don't like the "keep up or be abandoned" language, but what you're saying takes the edge off some of my concerns. I guess time will tell: a successful hike or another page on the RMRU website.

[lee]

I'll sweep... myself... to the tram Prepared to spend the night again Will do my best not to get my name in the news

[doug m.]

while it is a lot of people to take on the trail, verdi has lots of experience- he got a couple of dozen people up each of the last two years. i'm sure many only made it to the tram, but nobody needed to be rescued or got left for dead...

[Hikin_Jim]

... Will do my best not to get my name in the news

A worthy goal

[KathyW]

They probably just separate based on speed and end up using a buddy system based on how fast they are moving. Large groups aren't my thing either, but they are often done successfully by the Outdoors Club and the Sierra Club.

[Rick M]

Kathy wrote:

...Large groups aren't my thing either, but they are often done successfully by the Outdoors Club and the Sierra Club.

"often done successfully"? So sometimes "not successful"? I've been on two Sierra Club trips where people were hurt because:
1) some people were not really crampon and ice axe skilled for conditions
2) too many people and they were strung out
3) leaders got off route
4) triggered rockfall
I do have to mention that this was just two trips of countless so please don't get the impression that it is a frequent happening.

I guess my point is, sometimes there is not safety in numbers, accidents can happen in groups large or small, and that many successful trips are only so because a slip or avalanche or mountain lion didn't happen to happen at that instant in time that would spell disaster. Case in point, a very accomplished mountaineer (RJ Secor) was once injured on local Mt. Baldy after having done hard climbs worldwide. Our job is to try to minimize this while still enjoying the experience at the level we desire. I think staying with your manageably sized group is an important part of this. (I hope no one from my organization reads this last sentence:)

I have a question for this group, with all the concern I read about it here, have any of you e-mailed this Verdi person about your concerns? I would not want to read later that an accident or death happens and a flurry of "told you so". Or perhaps those individuals do read this list and this is your way of telling them. I just hope that all of the people that do go on his trip read these.

[cynthia23]

It's good to hear Verdi does have some track record in 'leading" large groups up Skyline, but on the other hand, the law of averages suggest that sooner or later (what I regard as) foolhardy behavior catches up with you, and someone gets hurt. I reject the idea that people will "self-screen" themselves based on the info in the email. That's grossly unrealistic. Many, many studies on accidents have proven that people CONSISTENTLY overestimate their own abilities. Let alone a hike like Skyline where even a very self-aware person may not be aware of the uniquely difficult aspects of this very unusual hike. It's very hard for non-locals/people who haven't done it before to grasp just how extraordinarily hard it will be--and the time to find that out is not at 5000 feet.

As far as RickM's question re: whether Verdi himself is aware of our concerns, perhaps since Simonov actually knows him, he might be willing to email him a link to our posting? Also, in all seriousness, I think someone should notify Jim Bakos that this event is going to occur on that date. The SAR people should not plan on going out to Hawaii that week!

RickM correctly pointed out even Sierra Club hikes have had problems; however, they are marvels of supervision and planning compared to Outdoors Club hikes, which are, let's say, somewhat anarchistic. They are fine for hardcore hikers but people not at a high level of fitness can get in a lot of trouble without any supervision or guidance. Am I just imagining this, or did another Outdoors Club hike on Skyline last year (I think it was during the summer) result in a rescue?

Personally, I would no more organize or lead a hike up Skyline with people I had never hiked with before, than I would try to colonize Mars with a band of Muppets. And with 40plus people? No way, Jose ...