by aeolian » Sun Oct 24, 2021 5:04 pm
Noob here. Catching up. I've looked at a chunk of stuff on otherhand, and parts of this thread. I don't see much about Bill. Who he was, what hiking, running, and desert experience he had. Bill's trip planning, what books/maps/websites he referenced. How was he dressed? What gear did he carry on this trip? How fit was he? He was newly arrived from Georgia, what food, water, and supplies did he purchase, and is it all accounted for? Footwear choice? Eyesight and glasses? Presumably somebody looked into this, any references?
We think he arrived after 10:20, though I'm willing to consider he arrived earlier. Eyewitness testimony is not reliable. His GF attempted to reach a ranger that evening. I take that to mean she expected him to call, meaning he expected to call her. Timeline reinforced by the dinner plan, leaves up to 6 or 8 (tops) hours for a walk/hike/adventure/trail run. Sounds like he changed plans in the morning, suggesting he carried multiple maps in the car or a thorough Jtree guidebook (yet he had handwritten directions to the TH?).
What I'm getting at is for some people, hiking the flat trail 2 miles out and returning to car would be an endurance event. Whereas a trail runner might make a 20-25 mile loop, out the California Riding and Hiking Trail into Covington Wash, crossing Smith Water, returning via Quail Springs and the Park Road a typical run. A crosscountry 'shwacker might enjoy canyons, ridges, just about anything. What type was Bill?
I see the general assumption is that Bill planned to summit Quail Mountain and return, but became injured. Unless he got turned around, I see no reason he would descend toward Smith Water on an unknown crosscounty route. He would have returned to the car (he had a gallon or two of water there I assume. Did he?). His car has the closest and best resources on the easiest route with best chance of encountering other humans.
Whatever Bill's plan was, without careful navigation, he can get himself on the wrong trail or off trail pretty easily. There's multiple trails crisscrossing plus erosion "trails" and animal tracks. His prior desert experience and interest suggests once he determined he was thoroughly lost, he had some ideas about survival - conserve water, find water, travel by night (the full moon) or morning. Try the cell phone occasionally. I agree with the assumption he turned off his cell phone before entering the park, and this means he was alive Sunday morning most likely. If he found water he may have traveled a couple days longer.
Seems there's a minimum of clues, creating a wide range a plausible scenarios.
Where did Greg Mendoza hike? This might reduce probabilities of certain initial Bill routes.
Also, what can be found now? Bones and clothes likely disintegrated in a few years. Plastic water bottles are likely gone too if they see the sun. Dirt encrusted grey flip phone and a shoe sole? What do you look for?