by Wildhorse » Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:25 am
I assume that the health directors have seen this chart, which is what the governments ideally hope to achieve. Undoubtedly they have also studied the epidemiological research as well. It is the latter that causes reason to believe lockdowns have not been effective. They work in theory, with a very high rate of compliance, but the actual level of compliance is typically much lower. Washington Post published a simplified model that demonstrates what happens. The Cochrane Library includes analyses of research.
I have heard cops have been stopping people in Anza who were driving to the San Jacintos to hike. Has anyone else heard of this?
Ed, where you are walking sounds really nice. In the LA area, even wide trails have been closed. The rationale varies among jurisdictions. Problems keeping public toilets sanitized (imagine that.). Fear that some people would hike in groups. Unsafe conditions for rangers.
I am biking more these days. When biking in in uncrowded areas, it is generally easy to avoid other people. I have also seen much noncompliance, not among bikers, but among walkers and people gathering on streets and at home. The safety net is torn open in many places.
Recently, some models have indicated that the virus began spreading much earlier than previously thought and that we could already be near halfway to herd immunity. I hope that is true.