Young Hikers Missing in Joshua Tree Since Thursday [7/27/17]

[Wildhorse]

I once knew a man who relocated his whole family and changed the family name. He kept his past secret.

I have known refugees who disappeared in the countries from which they came. I did not think much about the people I have known until I read the guardian piece.

I have no theories about Joseph and Rachel. I am hoping they are alive somewhere, and have a dog.

I wish it were easier to run away. But it is hard, and getting harder. Running away really irritates the people who wear uniforms and issue permits and licenses and watch us all.

[Wildhorse]

I should have remembered sooner. In Genesis, Joseph disappeared. Rachel was his mother.

[Sean]

It would be my guess that cadaver dogs would be more effective than tracking dogs since cadavers remain aromatic for quite some time and don't dissipate with the wind.

Unfortunately dry desert conditions radically alter the decomposition process. The couple probably died of dehydration. Then the arid environment dried them out even more. Decomp requires moisture. So that process was probably hindered or even stopped early on by extreme heat and low humidity.

Do dogs smell the mummification process?

And that's assuming scavengers never found the bodies.

[OtherHand]

The "death stench" can last for a surprisingly long time. When we found that suicidal gentleman in Death Valley he had been out in the elements for around 7 months and his remains had scattered considerably by scavengers (which is how we stumbled across him). But the site under a bush where he presumably died still gave off a considerable aroma, even to our non-dog noses. I would imagine a cadaver dog could have picked it up from quite a distance away.

[Perry]

Really interesting. Differing opinions here. I'm inclined to believe Otherhand's personal experience. Sounds like the decay process starts with the moisture available in the body, and the specific aromatic compounds remain after the body dries, in the same way that black mold in your wall is still dangerous even if it dries out. I would imagine an unburied body is considerably easier for dogs to find than a buried body. Assuming they already used cadaver dogs, and assuming no foul play or staged disappearance, then my guess would be that terrain or distance is the reason the dogs could not find the bodies. From looking at the map I'm guessing "north canyon" is that little canyon near the trailhead where "north canyon trail" passes through. If they had wandered northeast near the steep north face of Copper Mountain, then the hill/mountain in the way might make it difficult for dogs to tell which direction the scent was coming from (my non-expert guess). Or they could have wandered north and found sections of obscure trails (probably not maintained) and thought that was the same trail that they were on previously. But if they followed the obscure trails to the south that could explain the ping possibly being near Smith Water Canyon, or even the ping possibly being near the car in the late afternoon. The north face of Copper Mountain could probably ping as well (just a guess). If we had clear info I think that would really narrow down the possibilities.

Edit: I misunderstood the map. Not Copper Mountain, but the steep face kind of near the view of Copper Mountain.

[cynthia23]

Those all sound like excellent ideas to me, Perry.

I tend to think the dogs would scent a cadaver, but there may simply not have been enough dogs to cover the area being searched.

Wildhorse, I love your biblical reminder about the long tradition of missing people.

[Wildhorse]

I was thinking about their names and the name of the park.

Rachel is a female lamb. Joshua, from yeshua, is to rescue or deliver. Joseph was a kind of rescuer. Through the deceit of his brothers his father thought he was killed in the desert by wild animals. But Joseph had a new life in Egypt and he gave his family a new life and through him the promises to Abraham and Jacob were fulfilled.

I find the associations fascinating. The Joseph narrative is one of rescue and hope.

My interest is something like semiotics here, like in contemporary fiction involving missing people. The narrative of the nps is one without hope, like the narrative Joseph's brothers told Jacob. It is ironic and dark in a park with Joshua in its name. And the language in the press releases and public statements imply deceit. Their narrative encourages morbidness, trying to imagine how they may have died.

The meaning of Rachel's name is frightening when one thinks of its association with sacrifice, even while she is a mother of Israel and has a hopeful name.

[cynthia23]

Wildhorse, I'm glad you have brought into this discussion some of the mythic and historical meanings of human disappearances. In prehistoric times, when people had to go far and wide in the wilderness in order to hunt and gather, disappearing must have been an extremely common event, and of course there was no SAR to call upon then. Perhaps that's why now, when people disappear, it awakens such a strong, almost primitive urge in all of us to search for the missing person, and why we're so disquieted by unexplained disappearances. I think there must have been some natural selection at work to create our strong interest in this subject--perhaps the groups where people felt unconcerned by their fellows disappearing did not survive long.

[Perry]

With very limited and vague information on the ping, my guess is that it was a single ping combined with a coverage map and that's why we heard parking lot and Smith Water in the news. I think somewhere I remember reading Serin tower? Deja Vu all over again (Ewasko discussion). Anyways, here's some rough analysis with a map that I marked:

http://mapper.acme.com/?ll=34.09825,-11 ... 0Tree%20CA

The locations are
H: Serin Drive Tower
F: Parking Lot for Maze Loop and other trails.
B: Some place near Smith Water with similar distance to tower as parking lot and probably barely has reception.
D: A place where they could have wandered from North Canyon, with similar distance to tower as parking lot, probably barely has reception to register maybe 1 incomplete ping, and might be difficult for cadaver dogs to follow the scent if they are walking on the trails.

It sounds like the Copper Mountain View Spur is completely different than Copper Mountain which might not be in the park.

I think there must have been some natural selection at work to create our strong interest in this subject--perhaps the groups where people felt unconcerned by their fellows disappearing did not survive long.

As I'm sure you already know, there's a lot of evolution theory about survival of groups, not just individuals. Unfortunately, much of what makes it into schools, casual discussions, and media is individual-focused survival-of-the-fittest talk. Community has been important throughout history and pre-history. It's unlikely that our message board discussion at this point is going to help anybody, but certainly SAR efforts often do.

[Ric Capucho]

Hi All,

Like Tom, I'm extremely hesitant to conjecture on "criminal activities" when (a) there's so very little evidence in the public domain and (b) I also try to imagine what a parent might feel reading unfounded suspicions and accusations on the internet. No one should have to bury a child, and, barring a miracle, there are two profoundly hurt families out there who'll never get over this. My heart goes out to them.

My (non-criminal) thoughts on the 4pm ping:

A few years ago, whilst pondering the Ewasko case, I spent a few too many hours playing with the Serin Tower splash map (http://www.heywhatsthat.com/) adjusting the Tower elevation up and down a few feet at a time to try and simulate reflections, tenuous connectivity and whatnot. I looked *everywhere* inside and outside of the Park that was along the Ewasko ping arc (actually ping circle).

Specifically for this area in question, I came to the conclusion that (as you exit the Park via the northwest entrance) the entire northern end of the Park Road and the terrain to the east and west is *deeply* in Serin Tower coverage shadow (ignoring a few isolated peaks) except, ironically, the stretch that *starts* at the Maze Loop parking and descends down down down to the Park entrance. That very spot. And indeed, it's at that very corner (I call it "Gravel Pit Corner"; have a look at the topo and you'll see why) where visitor's cellphones that've been out of service for the full day suddenly light up and beep beep beep with text messages, voice messages, etc - confirmed by Adam during an old email exchange, I seem to remember). For a while I became quite excited that I was onto something as that very corner happens to be bang on the Ewasko ping 10 mile arc, similarly to Smithwater Canyon. That observation led me nowhere, but ok...

So coming late to this thread just yesterday, and avidly reading some 20 pages, the significance of Gravel Pit Corner was always in the back of my mind; that corner and a few spots at the north end of the Maze Loop are the only pingable areas anywhere (again, ignoring a few prominences - all of which look like a nasty ascent through jumbled rock piles). So yes, a 4pm ping in that area as the lost couple wandered in circles seemed perfectly consistent.

And then the bomb dropped: the 4pm ping originated around Smithwater Canyon; and I'm assuming that's true, and not some weird newspaper misunderstanding that's totally confused everything and everyone.

I have to echo Tom (pun intended) that a ping from older "flip phones" can only be ranged (or triangulated if there are two towers) by the tower, especially with an omnidirectional tower such as Serin; the tower can't figure out "where", but only "how far". But a ping from a smartphone is a few levels more sophisticated as not only can the tower range the ping, but the GPS chip in the smartphone tells the tower exactly where it is. Can a hobby survivalist disable the chip? Yes, for data services (the famous "disable location services") but (as far as I'm aware) not for cellphone (voice) services. So I'm strongly assuming the 4pm ping gave the tower the X that marks the spot: Smithwater Canyon.

Wow.

A 4pm ping from SWC is not only inconsistent with a Maze Loop hike starting at around 7am, but it's downright contradictory. No one would do the Maze and then decide to walk across the Park Road and head towards SWC mid afternoon, so that story line has no credibility. Then the alternative narrarive that has them totally lost and turned around in the Maze, and somehow wandering across 30 feet of Park Road tarmac and finding themselves in SWC is likewise silly. Didn't happen.

So here's a thought: they didn't spend the day doing the Maze Loop, they were elsewhere. They started bright and early *specifically* to spend the full day doing Smithwater Canyon, completing it late afternoon (leaving the 4pm ping as a calling card). Assuming a Quail Springs location for their car (did the Rangers check the contents of the various Park message boards?) they could be wrapped up by around 5:30pm. They then relocated themselves to the Maze Loop as a comparatively "easy win" to finish off the day, watch the sunset, take a few blue hour photos, and then they planned a quick return to the car knowing they're a mere few minutes from the Park exit and an easy drive back to their Airbnb.

And then it all went very wrong in the Maze.

Just because the car was found at the Maze Loop parking doesn't mean that was how they spent the day. Nor is the 4pm SWC ping a smoking gun for "criminal activity". Innocent until proven guilty, folks.

Ric