Young Hikers Missing in Joshua Tree Since Thursday [7/27/17]

[OtherHand]

Hi Ed, it is an interesting question. My guess is that it is possible.

Hi Perry, I would also like to know more about the abilities of the dogs. Maybe Otherhand knows.

I have limited knowledge on the subject, but that usually doesn't stop me from opening my mouth. Base upon my PERSONAL experience where dogs were used in searches I was a part of, my assessment was that they were of very little use or useless. I also heard similar opinions from my team members with far more experience than I.

Some qualifiers to this.....Dogs work best in cool, humid environments where scents linger. That's typically what's not found in SoCal, and especially the deserts. Back East may be a completely different story. Also, it's my understanding there are generally two types of dogs, cadaver and tracking. I have no idea which have been fielded in JTNP for this case. In desert environments like JTNP, with the temps over 100 degrees, the likelihood of a decent scent trail hanging around for more than a few hours seems unlikely, despite what the dog handlers say.

Do dogs work? Yes, occasionally they do, which is why SAR still employs them. The biggest problem I've observed is the large amount of false positives tracking dogs can produce. This is evident in the Ewasko case where they went off on some water bottles that were eventually determined to have been hidden by another hiker. And in the case of Norman Cox in Death Valley, the dog handlers claimed their dogs tracked him down the pavement where the trail ended, and he presumably got into a vehicle (which turned out to be completely untrue). False positives by tracking dogs can divert field resources that may be better used elsewhere. It would be my guess that cadaver dogs would be more effective than tracking dogs since cadavers remain aromatic for quite some time and don't dissipate with the wind.

Woof!!

[cynthia23]

Man's best friend, but perhaps not SAR's. Very informative post, Otherhand.

[Perry]

Some interesting things in this article:
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local ... 32343.html

"Both had previously attended CSUF. Neither is enrolled for this coming fall term, according to the University."

"Last November, a Los Angeles couple who disappeared after speaking of traveling to Joshua Tree were found instead 100 miles to the south in the desert near the Mexican border.

In another disappearance last year, authorities suspect the man's car may have been driven into the park and abandoned.

Three decades ago, Joshua Tree became the focus of an intensive search after 3-year-old Laura Bradbury disappeared from the Indian Cove campground area where her family was staying. Authorities suspected she had been abducted. Two years later, skeletal remains of a small skull believed to be of the missing child were located in the park."

The last part is very sad. I don't know what that says about dog capability in JTNP because the little girl may have been taken by a mountain lion, and authorities may have been quick to assume she was kidnapped.

[Wildhorse]

That they did not enroll this fall is tantalizing encouragement for the theory that they ran away.

I wonder what the dogs know that we do not. I love dogs.

[Perry]

I wonder what the dogs know that we do not. I love dogs.

Well I spent the last hour reading about dogs, so you're in for a treat (pun intended).

The media-type slightly-sensational articles make it sound like cadaver dogs are very capable, but I suppose it's not newsworthy every time a dog fails.
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/ ... eet_d.html
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/bucks ... 70713.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/scien ... 35047.html
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/c ... -1.3324830
http://www.tribdem.com/news/cadaver-dog ... bfc13.html

The more scientific articles say the dogs are not as successful as the media claim:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... n-science/
https://deathscent.com/2016/03/17/emerg ... -of-death/

And this is just interesting:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/nature/dog ... smell.html

The other question is whether they have used cadaver dogs at this point. It may be too hot to spend a proper amount of time out there with the dogs, especially considering that it would be a recovery effort and not a rescue this far out in time.

[zippetydude]

Nice, Perry. I had looked up some info myself and found a mixed bag as well. It does seem like the low humidity might have an impact, but I have smelled dead animals (at least I hope it was animals!) out on trail runs and the stench is powerful and seemed to reach a long way, even for my human olfactory senses. It seems like a dog should be able to smell a cadaver from a very long way away as long as they were downwind, so your last statement is particularly pertinent.

As far as their lack of enrollment, I don't know if that's indicative of anything. I took a semester off from college after my sophomore year simply because I was tired of school. During that time, I didn't murder anyone, I didn't commit suicide, but I did go out to the desert and up into the mountains frequently to sort things out and decide whether or not I wanted to continue schooling. If they ran away, then it seems like the whole break up and new boyfriend thing would have had to be a ruse, and that means the advance planning on their part would have been rather remarkable, starting months ahead of time and involving co-conspirators.

Time to break out Occam's razor again.

If they are not found by the time that Ellen's proposed get together takes place in October, it would be an interesting discussion to have with all of you in person. Possibilities can be bounced around much more quickly in a conversation and ideas can flow more freely. I have never been to The Maze nor to Smith Water Canyon, so once the weather cools down I think I will drive out there and see the area in person. Seems like that ought to help in understanding the logistics of the proposed scenarios and to clarify what reasonably could and could not have happened.

z

[cynthia23]

Maybe I'll join you, Zip. I've thought of overcoming my aversion to Highway 62 and driving up there once it cools down.

I agree with you about the powerful smell of decomposing animals on the trail--they really stink, so hard to see how a dog could miss it. However, perhaps even a dog has to be within a few hundred yards, and it might be the bodies are just in some area the dogs didn't quite cover.

Perry, thank you for posting all that new info. It is interesting that neither was enrolled this fall, but (sadly) often that's a money problem. If so, it argues against the plan of mutually running away (because where would they go, and how, without a car or money?) and, it's almost impossible to see why they would--perhaps the parents disapproved of the couple somehow, and maybe culturally that disapproval was more important to them than I might understand, but still, in modern day America, would ANY young couple, of any ethnicity, feel it was necessary to stage a disappearance to avoid parental disapproval? Anything is possible but this one seems only barely ahead of the 'alien abduction' theory.

I keep running across 'and years later, they found the skeletal remains nearby' stories. It keeps reinforcing my current sense they're both still in the park in a crevice, but maybe I'm wrong--like Zip, I hope I am.

[Wildhorse]

The crevice theory is roughly the same as the official position of nps and apparently of the sheriff too - they perished in the park in an accident. The dogs howl. They don't smell it.

[Wildhorse]

Here is an interesting article about missing persons from The Guardian. I am astonished by the number of cases and by the ability of people to run away and lead completely new lives.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/sep ... ng-persons

My sense is that it would help if our society was more tolerant of this. But we are not. We punish it.

Perry, I enjoyed reading about the dogs. Thanks for those links. I think it would be great to be a dog, if people were kinder and more dependable.

[cynthia23]

Wow, Wildhorse, what a fascinating article! I know a lot of adults 'go missing' but I haven't thought a great deal about why. This article didn't really explain why, but I almost felt there was an implication that for a certain kind of very non-confrontational person, someone who just can't bear conflict, it might seem like their only option when presented with interpersonal problems. Still, it's incredibly hard to imagine a couple both 'running away'. But how wonderful it would be if that was the case here.