Young Hikers Missing in Joshua Tree Since Thursday [7/27/17]

[Wildhorse]

I wonder if the phone was in Joseph's possession at the time of the ping. I still wonder when the car was parked at Maze. We know it was there on Day 3 afternoon, but we don't know when it arrived at Maze.

And most of all, I wonder where Joseph and Rachel are now?

[Sean]

From the July 29 JTree press release:

A ping of the male’s cell phone was recorded on July 27 at 4pm from a location inside the park.

In order for this to be an accurate statement, the NPS must have been told, at minimum, the distance and direction from which the cell signal originated. Otherwise, they would not have been able to know that Orbeso's phone was "inside the park." It could have been within the city limits.

It is a little weird that they apparently knew more about this ping two days after the disappearance than they know now, a month later.

“Somewhere within 10 miles of where that ping was is where that cell phone was,” Smith said.

Ten miles is a great distance, potentially placing the phone north of the highway!

[cynthia23]

Wildhorse, you remind us of an important point--the cell phone was not necessarily in the possession of the two hikers at the time of the ping. And we don't actually know for sure when the car arrived at the Maze TH.

Sean, you touch upon a significant issue as well--the NPS has actually become more vague and noncommittal in their discussions of the ping, which is strange. Which suggests that they themselves now uncertain of what occurred. Which suggests there is some info to which the public is not privy.

Ed, I think you raise an important point too--rather than the NPS's obfuscating talk being deliberate, it could just be that they really don't understand anymore about it than the average person. It's not exactly their area of expertise.

[Wildhorse]

I am inclined to believe that the nps Smith was making a rhetorical move. He was trying to downplay the ping for some reason, not trying to inform. It is unlikely that nps does not know the gps location of the phone at the time of the ping.

[Perry]

I thought about this some more. If the phone sent GPS data to a tower or triangulated with 2 towers, then the official statements are not adding up. If however it's a flip phone that only pings distance, only 1 tower, then it could be a radius/arc across a coverage map where the arc passes through Smith Water and the Maze parking lot and both places have coverage. At the moment I can't easily find a map to verify if this is possible.

[Wildhorse]

A g search revealed that survivalists discuss how to avoid being tracked by cell phone. It seems almost all phones already comply with e911 laws and provide gps info. Survivalists also seem to be interested in ways to avoid triangulation if they do have a phone without gps.

So an interesting question would be why Joseph's phone did not give the gps location, if it did not. I remember an early article saying Joseph had survivalist interests. Just wondering.

[zippetydude]

Interesting thought Wildhorse.

In general, I find it almost inconceivable that someone that age would have a flip phone. I am old and even I am not carrying around a flip phone! The survivalist thought might explain that oddity.

It is possible that the ping was only partial (if there is such a thing) so that GPS data was not fully transferred, or that the authorities are deliberately excluding information (as has been mentioned, possibly in order to keep good-hearted people from going out in August to help with a search that will be safer in October). My understanding is that the data is transferred almost instantaneously so the most reasonable explanation right now seems to indicate to me that at least at one point there is clear, unequivocal data as to where the couple went after leaving their car. Nothing beyond that is clear at all ...but it seems like the searchers have something specific on the location of the ping and are simply being responsible and not releasing it.

That being said, I would think the family would be privy to such information, and if they're going to offer a $10,000 reward, they're probably going to give out the best intel they have...

z

[cynthia23]

Wildhorse, that's fascinating info about survivalists, and you're right, the friend did mention Orbeso was 'a survivalist'. I think I agree with Zip that the odds of any young person owning a flip phone are virtually nil--if Orbeso did own one, that does suggest something odd and intentional. If I'm understanding all of this correctly, if it was a normal smart phone, the ping should have identified their location within a hundred feet? Therefore either the NPS is lying/obfuscating, or Orbeso had a flip phone?

It's very frustrating that the media does not pin down the NPS and demand they explain these discrepancies.

[cynthia23]

Double post.

[Wildhorse]

Hi Cynthia, It may also be possible to disable the gps in a smart phone. My iphone is able to disable location services, but I don't know if that applies to gps for e911. We can find out.

Meanwhile, I have a question for Myth, if you are still reading this.

If you wanted to leave JTNP without being detected, what route would you suggest, starting at the maze parking. Could you do it through Smith Water Canyon, for example? Can you think of other routes?