Story of missing hiker in Joshua Tree NP

[RichardK]

Since this thread has been bumped up, I will take this opportunity to offer my own theory. I agree with Adam Marsland that the cell phone ping makes absolutely no sense IF Bill was of sound mind and was lost or hobbling substantial distances around the park. Furthermore, if Bill had a physical injury that prevented him from returning to his car, then that injury also prevented him from going much of anywhere else. He might have crawled a hundred feet to the shade of a rockpile or a clump of bushes, but no more. If Bill could stand and move at all, he would have returned to his car. So, if Bill suffered a physical injury that left him unable to walk, then the site of that injury, the site of the cell phone ping, and the site of Bill's ultimate demise are all rather close together. Since all of the ping locations have been searched, my conclusion is that Bill did not suffer a physical injury.

Bill set out to do the second hike on his itinerary: Lost Horse Mountain and Quail Mountain. Although he and Mary discussed her misgivings about the first hike on the list, Carey's Castle, Tom Mahood's summary of events states that Bill was westbound on I-10 from the Monterey Avenue ramp. Carey's Castle is eastbound from that interchange. Bill did the Lost Horse hike first which explains his late arival at the Juniper Flats trailhead. Bill started to Quail Mountain after hiker Greg Mendoza got there at 10:20AM. The boot tracks seen by Mendoza on his return are likely Bill's. I do not believe that Bill had any intention of going anywhere but the summit of Quail and back to his car. No epic hike, no Smith Water Canyon, just Quail and back.

Somewhere on the slopes of Quail, Bill suffered a mental rather than a physical injury. Possible causes are:

1. Bill took a fall hitting his head which caused a concussion
2. Bill had some kind of stroke that left him ambulatory, but in a mental fog
3. Bill had some kind of brain aneurysm also leaving him ambulatory, but mentally confused
4. Bill over heated unexpectedly fast causing mental confusion
5. Bill dehydrated unexpectedly fast causing mental confusion

In a stupor, Bill made his way down the slopes of Quail. He encountered the California Riding and Hiking Trail. He followed the trail westward without thinking about it. He just followed it mechanically. At some point, Bill turned his cell phone on and never turned it off. Eventually, he passed through a finger of cell phone coverage in Upper Covington Flats producing the ping. Bill disappeared into the badlands west of Upper Covington.

Of course, this theory is still pure speculation. But, at least, it avoids the conspiracy theories of deliberate disappearance or foul play.

[Ric Capucho]

With regards to the point made a couple of posts ago of old maps, I had the same thought a year or so ago. I found a bunch of old topo maps on the USGS website, downloaded them and then scanned them for "secret mines" or "obscure trails" or whatever.

Anyways, the latest maps seem to show everything that there ever was. Interestingly, the various "roads" across Juniper Flats, Quail Springs and the Covingtons are newly marked on earlier WW II maps as jeep trails, and as those maps were made in a hurry by the US Marine Corp the assumption is that they were blazed by the map makers themselves!

Back to Bill:

I'm now pretty much with Richard's theory above. I'd only add that a confused Bill was capable of wandering just about anywhere on the ping arc. The arc reaches deep into those badlands west of Covington, or east into the jumble of rocks and gullys east of the Park Road.

And to really mix it up, the ping arc obviously makes a complete 360 degree circle around Serin Tower. I was always amazed that Bill managed to contain himself within such a comparatively small area, but a confused Bill was capable of walking across the entire circle perhaps along the CHRT and into the forested mountains north west of Yucca Valley or perhaps straight up and along the Park Road across the interstate and up into the mess of roads and trails northwards. A brief instinctive stop for water somewhere along the way and on he goes, lighting up the ping on the far side of the Serin circle.

But seriously I'd say west of Covington or east of Park Road, simply because most of the arc between them have been scoured by Tom, Adam and others.

Ric

[zippetydude]

Now that this has become a very long thread, I don't know where the most likely spots would be to scour this fall. Would anyone be able to post a map of highly likely areas? I remember links to thoroughly searched areas posted some time ago, but given what we know now, especially in light of the recent posts which really seem to have aligned a bit in their interpretation of what probably took place, it seems like some very specifically targeted hikes through the zones of greatest likelihood just might yield something.

BTW, I've recently read some remarkable accounts of how powerful drones can be in searches. One such example:

In July, 82-year-old Guillermo DeVenecia went missing from his home in Fitchburg, Va. After a three-day search by police, officials feared for DeVenecia’s safety and health because he suffered from dementia and hearing loss. Upon hearing a news alert about the situation, drone pilot David Lesh deployed his drone above one of DeVenecia’s last known locations and, within 20 minutes, found him – suffering from dehydration but otherwise in good shape.

Here's a link for the full article, which cites other examples as well:

http://dronelife.com/2014/12/26/5-drone ... ries-2014/

I'm not into drones, but I bet there are people locally who are, and who would be willing to help. One other thought - as far as I know, drones don't care if it's hot. That means you could always go out on a fairly warm to hot day, bringing your own shade and refreshments, and then just pilot the drone around and search without having to cover the terrain yourself. Just a thought.

z

[OtherHand]

I'm not into drones, but I bet there are people locally who are, and who would be willing to help. One other thought - as far as I know, drones don't care if it's hot. That means you could always go out on a fairly warm to hot day, bringing your own shade and refreshments, and then just pilot the drone around and search without having to cover the terrain yourself. Just a thought.

z

Unfortunately, there is a blanket ban on the use of RC aircraft or "drones" in National Parks, including Joshua Tree. That's not to say a park's management couldn't permit their use for an active search and rescue mission, by a recognized SAR team, but due to FAA legalities only a handful of teams nationwide might possess such capabilities. For the park to allow drone use for a cold case, and especially by um....citizen searchers, would be extremely unlikely.

[zippetydude]

That makes sense. All that buzzing and whirring would make the parks unenjoyable. So, about a map of most probable locations....anyone?

z

[Florian]

I just want to ask if this guy is ever found that someone will post as a new topic so i can stop checking this 39 page thread.

-Florian

[Hikin_Jim]

That makes sense. All that buzzing and whirring would make the parks unenjoyable. So, about a map of most probable locations....anyone?

Well. Who knows.

You can sift through the mass of info on Searching for Bill Ewasko which includes a lot of maps, but probable location? I'm not sure we've got one or that there is one. I mean we've come up with a number of reasonable theories... and abandoned them one by one when Bill was not found. We don't have much to go on in the way of placing Bill in any particular locale. I still figure he's somewhere in and around Quail Mountain but just hasn't been found for whatever reason. The terrain is such that one could walk 15' away from where Bill lay and not see him. However, the sky's the limit. It's not even 100% clear that Bill actually went to Quail Mountain.

HJ

[Myth]

I just returned from a two-day excursion to JTNP today.

I have to confess though, I wasn't looking for Bill! I had other, much more likely to be found needles to look for in that haystack.

I did want to post, though - I went in on a day where excessive heat warnings were announced by the weather service and posted at the park entrance, and while I confined my activities to the higher reaches of the Park ( no messing around in the Pinto Basin, in other words ) I never found the heat oppressive*. This makes me reconsider the feasibility of looking for Bill during the summer months. The extra daylight is nice, given the effort that goes into reaching the likely search areas. And Quail Mountain is nicely elevated and much cooler than the low-laying areas.

My thought is still: between Quail Mountain and Smith Water. You guys who've been to the Park: why would you park at that back country board and then ping off towards spots like Lost Horse or whatnot that has closer parking available? Bill wasn't a newcomer to Joshua Tree. He knew the terrain. I still believe he parked at that back country board because he meant to tackle Quail Mountain.

I've been in the area a handful of times. Hikin'_Jim has the right of it - the terrain up there really is such that you'd walk 10-15 feet from where Bill lies and you would never know. Something as simple as choosing which way to cut around a creosote or juniper may be all that stood between a successful and an unsuccessful search.

I am fired up to search for Bill again. I've had some unfinished business elsewhere in JTNP that I took care of recently ( except that one secret place that needs a well-plotted attack plan ... working on that ) and I feel it is time to do something for the greater good again. I think a nice long day peering under every bush and overhang and behind every rock pile on Smith Water Canyon's south slopes is called for - either fairly soon or towards October in my case. Barring a sudden "wealthy-enough-to-quit-my-day-job" windfall I'm booked up work-wise July-September.

*Disclaimer: I live in an oppressively hot heck-hole in California. My idea of "oppressive" is way different than many non-desert dwellers. Do not attempt a June-August JTNP back country hike unless you regularly chuckle at 104F temperatures while taking your mid-day jog.

[Hikin_Jim]

Disclaimer: I live in an oppressively hot heck-hole in California. My idea of "oppressive" is way different than many non-desert dwellers. Do not attempt a June-August JTNP back country hike unless you regularly chuckle at 104F temperatures while taking your mid-day jog.

Yeah, I was going to say. I was wilting this past weekend, and I was in Pasadena (which is not exactly the high temperature capital of America).

HJ

[OtherHand]

I just returned from a two-day excursion to JTNP today.
My thought is still: between Quail Mountain and Smith Water. You guys who've been to the Park: why would you park at that back country board and then ping off towards spots like Lost Horse or whatnot that has closer parking available? Bill wasn't a newcomer to Joshua Tree. He knew the terrain. I still believe he parked at that back country board because he meant to tackle Quail Mountain.

I've been in the area a handful of times. Hikin'_Jim has the right of it - the terrain up there really is such that you'd walk 10-15 feet from where Bill lies and you would never know. Something as simple as choosing which way to cut around a creosote or juniper may be all that stood between a successful and an unsuccessful search.

A few comments....Unless people act very much out of the ordinary, they usually park at the trailhead closest to their intended destination. Bill's case is confusing because his itinerary merely had an entry for "Lost Horse Mt./Quail Mt" and we are left to interpret what that meant. Was it maybe one or the other, or was it both? To do both on a Summer's day is a crazy-ambitious thing. Based upon the 8 AM cell call to Mary where he stated he was WB on I/10 near Monterrey, I always estimated he should have arrived at the Juniper Flat trailhead around 9 AM. Yet when hiker Mendoza arrived at that location at 10:20, there were no cars there. So, ummmm.....what??

A theory that probably best fits the facts (but not perfectly) is that Bill did indeed drive a bit further in on Keys View Road and first parked at the Lost Horse Mine trailhead. It's a pretty easy hike to the mine area, and makes for a good walk. A trip to the actual peak is a bit more work. After doing whatever he did there, he relocated to the Juniper Flats trailhead and started toward Quail.

There are a few things awkward about this theory. Starting a hike as ambitious as Quail in Summer, with such a late start, AFTER already having done a bit of hiking that morning is hard to comprehend and Bill doesn't strike me as a foolish person. But if someone seriously wanted to deal with such a full plate, a very early start seems mandatory. And an early start would explain his not showing up at the West JTNP entrance station as it's not manned before 8:00 AM (I myself have scooted in many times before the ranger arrives). But an 8 AM entry doesn't fit with the cell call, which was backed up by the location of the tower it was pinging at the time of the call.

One thing that could shed some light on the timing is one sentence out of an article the High Desert Sun published on the anniversary of Bill's hike: "Video surveillance cameras would later show the hiker buying two bottles of water at a Joshua Tree market before entering the park." So clearly the Sheriff's file has info as to the specific time Bill was in a Joshua Tree store. Despite a few attempts, that info has always remained out of my reach.

My best sense is that Bill did some sort of Lost Horse thing, then moved to the Juniper Flats trailhead and started for Quail. Having already done some hiking, and with the day already being well on and stinkin' hot, I suspect dehydration would arrive sooner than usual. That could have precipitated a detour to Smith Water. It represents a series of bad decisions which is precisely how these sort of things happen.

A comment about the difficulty of the terrain between Quail and Smith Water..... The idea that we could have walked very close to Bill and not seen him is sadly true. In most of our searching we attempted to cover the low hanging fruit. That is, we looked along routes that made sense for someone travelling cross country. People don't go straight over a rock outcropping when it's easier to go around it. Later, we did a lot of "fill in" to cover voids in the search area regardless of whether or not the terrain made sense. Those were a lot of fun. But if Bill did something like taking shelter is some shaded, hidden rock grotto or climbed a rock cropping attempting to acquire a better cell signal, well then we could have missed him.

This is also my response to the various ideas that Bill's disappearance was staged or involved foul play. I will concede there's a non-zero probability of either and they can't be positively ruled out. But having spent many hours in that terrain I think the probability of us missing him still remains the MUCH more likely explanation.

Finally, it is possible to do hiking in JTNP in Summer if you're cautious and know what you are doing. I don't really put it out there as anyone can read the Internet so I tend to err on the side of discouraging it. But here are a couple of good weather sources I use to see what's up out there.

This first one is of a webcam on Belle Mountain, which looks over Pinto Basin. In itself, not much use, but the actual weather data is from the Black Rock Ranger Station, a good representation of Lower Covington Flat. I noticed the past few mornings it's been 77 degrees by 6:30 AM, far out of my comfort level. Personally, I wouldn't start a Summer hike out there unless I could begin it no later than 7 AM, with the temperature at that time not exceeding 70 degrees. And I REALLY want to be back at the vehicle by the time it nudges 90. Your mileage may vary.

This other weather site is for the Lost Horse Ranger Station. It's just over the ridge easterly of Lang Canyon near Hidden Valley. It's a good measure of the Juniper Flats trailhead.