Story of missing hiker in Joshua Tree NP

[Hikin_Jim]

Interesting article, Hal.

This in particular struck me:

Lisa Best is still waiting for authorities to find her brother, Joshua, who disappeared in September, 2000 while hiking to the Palm Springs Aerial Tramway.

With regard to Bill Ewasko, they do know he's missing, so one would think that they'd be checking any remains found to see if they are his.

HJ

[Myth]

I'm heading out to JTNP a couple weekends from now, although for this long-planned trip I'm committed to the Hexie Mountains and the Queen ( ?? not sure ) mountains ( Paymaster mine area ). Still, hope to get into the park around noon on the first day, with the next two committed as above. I hope to steer towards Juniper Flats that first afternoon and have a look around. I've been to JTNP before, but this area is not one I've been to recently.

The cell phone ping is puzzling to me. On one hand, it seems very helpful - if accurate, it can really narrow things down. ( If, for whatever technical reason, not accurate, it is obviously a massive misdirection. I have worked in the GIS field about a decade ago, coding the front end for software that used cell pings to triangulate positions, and occasionally we would have rogue pings in the data. That was another country and another cell phone protocol, though. )

As far as trusting the ping to help narrow things down goes: Bill started out on Thursday. The ping was received Sunday morning. We don't know for sure how much water he was carrying, but at that point he was out for two days, the better part of three really. I would think that he probably didn't have the reserves left to move too far from the location of the ping.

So, on paper, Smith Water Canyon in particular looks like a perfect spot to find him. Plenty of boot on the ground have since shown that this isn't the case. If you follow the cell tower radius to the north, you run first through fairly well traveled Quail wash, and then up against the park road. Covington Flat - there doesn't appear to be a good reason for him to have headed that way.

My best guess would be that he might be in a hard-to-find, not necessarily remote, spot. Most shelter from the sun would be a bit hidden.

I'm going to try to convince my SO of a return trip to JTNP some time in February most likely, and my modus operandi would be to find a few likely spots to look in, inside a 1/4 mile or so band around the cell tower radius. Not covering a lot of area necessarily, but trying to cover it densely, looking for likely sheltered spots. If I can swing this, I'll provide GPS tracks.

I'm writing from work again ( home computer has been on the fritz for a while, but I hope to fix this weekend so I'd finally be able to load all the GPS tracks, not to mention, Google Earth! Been reduced to looking at provided map caps, some USGS topos, and Google Maps ) so I can't give much detail. I'd like to put together a map or two to show what I'm thinking more clearly.

[OtherHand]

I was made aware of some newer info regarding testing of Verizon's distance measuring ability from its Serin tower. Bottom line is that it seems to be VERY accurate. This resulted in a simple reconnaissance trip into the area I have yet to write up. Maybe Sunday or Monday. I expect we'll be doing a more serious effort very soon and that would be a good opportunity to explain what I'm thinking then. But based upon my extensive experience with Bill to date, I'm probably wrong.

[Hikin_Jim]

So, on paper, Smith Water Canyon in particular looks like a perfect spot to find him.

That was my thought too.

This photo was shot from the ridge that leads to Quail. One has to cross the intervening terrain and then pass over the ridge on the skyline in order to get to Smith Water. It's not easy, but it's not undoable either.


The descent into Smith Water is a different matter. It's down right intimidating. Note that you cannot see the bottom. However, if Bill made it this far he may have felt that he had no choice but to continue.


The final drop into Smith Water is fairly steep -- and the route you're seeing in my photo is one of the best ways down. There are plenty of routes that are much steeper.


Once you're down in Smith Water, you're likely to stay there. The walls are pretty steep. Here, I'm looking at the west side of the canyon as I descend from the east.


The area with the "spring" was fairly small, and water flow was minimal. If he stayed near the water, the area he could be in is quite small. I think he would have been found.


However, Bill could have gotten hung up on the descent. Depending on which route he took, he may not have been able to get to the bottom of the canyon. You can't scan those places where he might have gotten stuck from above. Here, I'm looking up at the east side of the canyon from below. Bill would have had to come down this if he took a direct route to the spring area.

Route finding was not trivial when I went from Quail Mtn to Smith Water last May. I really had to pay attention to hit the route that I had picked out. A lot of routes to the bottom from the east would be difficult to do for a skilled, uninjured person and probably impossible if injured. Recall that I knew in advance that I wanted to go from Quail to Smith Water. I had the detailed topos with me, and I had a route all picked out based on topos and satellite photos. Bill would have had no such luxury. He probably didn't know the exact location of the spring. He would have just had to take a general course and then just keep inching forward no matter how steep it got. He had nothing to lose by risking a fall since he was basically a goner anyway if he didn't get to water. If he picked a steep, cliffed out route -- which it's very likely he did, he could have found the route impassible and been unable to climb back up.

I've thought that it might be worth glassing the east side of the canyon from the west side. Maybe a spot of color or something would show up.

Of course all this assumes that he headed toward Smith-Water which isn't a given.

HJ

[Myth]

OtherHand - looking forward to reading your write-up and further thoughts. PS: Re-reading your trip reports today, I wondered if you ever found out anything more regarding the personal effects you noticed on trip 22 and contacted JTNP about? Did they ever go check it out / clear it that you know of?

Hikin_Jim - Yep. Even on a 7.5 USGS topo, one can tell that Smith Water Canyon is trouble when approached from the south, like Bill might have. The topo lines get pretty cozy. Of course, if you don't have a reasonable topo, you're not going to know that until you arrive.

I think it is probably still worth considering that Bill may have gotten trapped on the slopes above Smith Water Canyon. He could have hit the Serin Drive tower on his way there/ If he did try to descend, it would be quite a feat to find him - the terrain appears very hostile. Also, the area between Quail Mountain ( assuming Bill went there ) and Smith Water ( assuming here that if Bill had descended to Quail Wash or Covington Flats, he likely would have been found by now due to the more forgiving terrain ) doesn't appear large enough for someone to wander lost in for the better part of 2 days or so. That makes me think he may have become injured. ( Or, he was trying to be sensible and staying put during the heat of the day. ) Still, just thoughts. I may well be blowin' smoke since I haven't been to this particular area yet, I have only studied photos, trip reports, topos, satellite views, etc.

I notice from your first picture of the descent into Smith Water that the housing outside of Joshua Tree is quite visible off to the right. I have to think, if Bill had gotten stuck up high, those may have factored into his decision, drawing him northeast along Smith Water Canyon perhaps, looking for a descent.

I'm considering taking my topos and GPS etc if I can swing the trip in Feb ( assuming that OtherHand's new efforts haven't found Bill by then! ) and striking out for Smith Water from Quail Mountain with nothing more than a general "I want to go north-ish" attitude. Maybe not having a set path will lead to a potentially informative traverse through the terrain. ( GPS etc would be for tracks, and for helping to stay out of trouble if needed, not for navigation to Smith Water. ) I wouldn't try any descents, but I'd try to note them and see if there's a safe spot from which to check them out with binoculars later. Considering fatigue, I would imagine once Bill started descending in any seriousness, he was likely committed to going down.

Of course, this stuff seem all doable and logical on paper! Until you're out there trying it, you really don't know much.

[OtherHand]

OtherHand - looking forward to reading your write-up and further thoughts. PS: Re-reading your trip reports today, I wondered if you ever found out anything more regarding the personal effects you noticed on trip 22 and contacted JTNP about? Did they ever go check it out / clear it that you know of?.

I may not get around to writing things up for a few more days as there's a fair amount to talk about. As for the personal effects found on the trail towards Blackrock, I don't know what the final disposition of that stuff was. I would hope they picked it up after I complained rather loudly about them ignoring it.

I think it is probably still worth considering that Bill may have gotten trapped on the slopes above Smith Water Canyon.

I agree, just not in the area we've all been looking at to date. I've always found it a little odd that in all the searching no one has ever found a trace of the three water bottles Bill was believed to have been carrying. He could have tossed the empties aside or left them on rocks as markers for others. It makes little sense to hold on to and carry empty bottles.....unless he was planning on refilling them. Bill knew about Smith Water. I think Bill had a plan (perhaps too clever a plan for his own good), since if he exhibited typical lost person behavior he would have been found long ago.

And somebody reaching the southerly slopes of Smith Water Canyon, severely dehydrated, almost certainly injured and with no hiking poles would be very unlikely to make it down. It is unforgiving terrain that can bring a quick end to things.

[Myth]

I agree, just not in the area we've all been looking at to date. I've always found it a little odd that in all the searching no one has ever found a trace of the three water bottles Bill was believed to have been carrying. He could have tossed the empties aside or left them on rocks as markers for others. It makes little sense to hold on to and carry empty bottles.....unless he was planning on refilling them. Bill knew about Smith Water. I think Bill had a plan (perhaps too clever a plan for his own good), since if he exhibited typical lost person behavior he would have been found long ago.

And somebody reaching the southerly slopes of Smith Water Canyon, severely dehydrated, almost certainly injured and with no hiking poles would be very unlikely to make it down. It is unforgiving terrain that can bring a quick end to things.

This rings very true for me. The lower, more accessible areas descending Quail Mountain have been searched pretty well. Lost or tired people tend to descend via gullies or washes, attracted by the "easier" downhill. ( Downhill, of course, is not easy. Not on the knees, anyway! ) Based on search results to date, Bill did not do this.

IF he had a plan, say, he wanted to hit Quail Mountain, continue northwest to Smith Water, which was on his itinerary, fill up there, and then return to his car in the evening via the relatively flat areas of either Quail Wash or Covington Flats ... well, then he very well could have been stymied by Smith Water's steep descent.

I can easily imagine coming up with a plan like that myself. It is why I don't go on these little trips by myself - I am almost guaranteed to come up with an overly ambitious plan since I'm always excited to see what is behind the next ridge, and I like a good challenge. If you want to entice me somewhere, show me a topo with wide, open expanses, and the explorer in me goes "I want to see what is out there!" I always make sure to take along an entity wiser ( and lazier! ) than myself, to keep me within my means and out of trouble.

Given Bill's late start, he may well have been covering ground fast to Smith Water. Perhaps being in a hurry makes you more likely to take a spill or twist an ankle. Or perhaps it just makes you more likely to think "Hmmm, that's steep, but doable, and I don't really have time to look for something better."

I would be most interested in the southern slopes of Smith Water, starting just northeast of the odor location, and continuing on towards Quail Wash from there. If he had a compass that he used to bear northwest to Smith Water, and he wasn't taking declination into account, wouldn't he have trended more west-north-west-ish instead? In Georgia, he may have been used to north being "a little bit to the right" of magnetic north. In Joshua Tree, north is "a little bit more to the left" of magnetic north. So if you trend a shade more east of a positive inclination, being used to trending a bit east of a negative inclination, you'd bend maybe ~15 degrees more easterly than you think you're going. ( I think. Good at math, I am not. )

Over the distance between Quail Mountain & Smith Water, this doesn't amount to anything very drastic, but it is a thought. It is an experiment that I would like to carry out on location, if I can get my ducks lined up right. It all depends on how successful my pending trip to Joshua Tree is in terms of containing interesting destinations & discoveries - the excitement of an unexpected desert discovery is more likely to lure my spouse back for another trip in February! I have done my research well enough, I hope, that my trip will be interesting.

Now, if Bill isn't above or on Smith Water's southern slopes, I would become more interested in the area between Quail Mountain and Smith Water, since I'd speculate then that he got into trouble before reaching Smith Water, and is somewhere sheltered and hard to see.

[Hikin_Jim]

I think it is probably still worth considering that Bill may have gotten trapped on the slopes above Smith Water Canyon.

It seems like we're all giving this angle some serious consideration.

I'm considering... striking out for Smith Water from Quail Mountain with nothing more than a general "I want to go north-ish" attitude. Maybe not having a set path will lead to a potentially informative traverse through the terrain.

A darned good idea. My very deliberate and pre-selected route is unlikely to have emulated a route picked on-the-fly by Bill.

Considering fatigue, I would imagine once Bill started descending in any seriousness, he was likely committed to going down.

Ah. Well stated. "Committed" was just what I was trying to express. I keep assuming injury, but also considering the amount of water that he was carrying and the fact that he got a late start, I think he would have felt compelled to descend once he started.

somebody reaching the southerly slopes of Smith Water Canyon, severely dehydrated, almost certainly injured and with no hiking poles would be very unlikely to make it down.

That's along the lines of what I've been thinking. The trouble is getting a good look at those spots above the creek bed but below the "lip" of the slopes above. I've looked at a topo a little bit for vantage points on the opposite side of the canyon, but I think getting good coverage is a difficult proposition.

HJ

[OtherHand]

OK, you fans of the "Smith Water scenario" might find the following new additions to my stuff on Bill of interest. They're very pertinent to the discussion.

JT44

Current Bill Ewasko thoughts, January 2013

[Myth]

Just read the trip report - that stitched graphic is a fantastic representation, great idea.

Now on to the current thoughts post, which appears even better.

EDIT: Oh, great further thoughts writeup, too!

I was eying those helicopter tracks myself. I've spent a lot of time turning a basic puzzle around in my mind: the distance from Bill's car to the cell phone radius is too short to take three days to cover. What happened to have it take that long, and not have Bill spill out into a better traveled area of the park in the meantime, or somewhere that has been searched since where he would have been found?

Bill was alive and likely moving around early Sunday morning. His cell phone sent out that ping - probably, I agree, from being turned on one last time with a dead battery. I've seen many phones shut off due to low battery, but still be willing to turn on briefly without a recharge. I'm relatively confident that this is what Bill's phone did. He likely would have heard the helicopters overhead and signaled if he could. He may have heard the CHP helicopter that found his car on Saturday and gotten himself into a more visible spot if he was sheltering from the sun, in preparation for trying to signal a helicopter. I would imagine he *could* signal, because he was able to get a cell ping out Sunday morning. If you are in a crevice or a sheltered spot, the odds of getting the ping out seems low, right?

So, since he was never seen, he may not have been where the helicopters went.

That's one reason ( along with my crazy compass theory ) why I was thinking, myself, of going to check out the south slope of the northeast side of Smith Water. But since more capable folks than myself are headed out there, probably before my mid-to-late February target date, I will leave it to the professionals, though I will still try to swing through general the area on my upcoming trip to get a feel for it.

The other thing that haven't been brought up in these discussions yet, is that Bill could well be further inside the cell tower radius than we think. Obviously the terrain, especially around Smith Water, nixes a lot of that ( he didn't go down into Smith Water Canyon and back up north to end up in the hills northwest of Smith Water Canyon, for instance ) but I think it is still possible that he ended up closer to that tower than we might think. It is unlikely that he stopped moving right after sending out the cell ping.

Still, I do believe that the time of the cell ping, so long after he went missing, and his likely condition at that time tethers him fairly close to the radius.

That is why I've thought, should Smith Water not pan out, and should the terrain between Smith Water and Quail Mountain not pan out ( I referred to this in my earlier post. My thought there is that a desperation attempt to get back to his vehicle or areas better traveled might have drawn him a ways back towards Quail Mountain after the ping was sent ) I would have one more area that I would consider a "way way wild card": the area between Upper Covington Flat and Covington Flat, and some ways north-north-west of it, maybe. There's an unnamed spring in that area on the USGS topo, west of marked-as-dry Covington Spring. If we take the water bottle theory, which sounds very good to me, along with the tracks headed west on Juniper Flats road and the likely weather ( walk up a mountain, or stay relatively flat? ) , perhaps Bill never walked up Quail Mountain. Perhaps he went way west and had his eye on that spring for a refill. Some problems with this theory includes motivation - there's nothing particularly interesting out there that I know of - and the fact that this area is a more accessible area where he may have been spotted by now. An early search also involved a ranger driving out on Juniper Flats road with a microphone looking for Bill. Unless he was immobile at the time ( and that would probably nix the "one ping sent out" theory, since he would have registered a ping earlier if he was immobile at a point where he had coverage ) he surely would have signaled or been attracted was he lost.

Still, should Smith Water's southern slopes come up empty, that would be my crazy spot to try. I'm the kind of trouble seeker who saves links of interesting looking satellite views in remote places, to be followed up as time permits, because one of the most fun things I can think of to do with my sparse spare time is to find the intersection of nature, a challenge, and a "what is out there?" mystery. If I ever end up in big trouble, it would be because I had a clever plan to go way off the beaten track where no-one would ever think to go ( or look for me ). In that regard, I feel a chill shiver up my spine when I think that Bill might have done something similar. It does make me think more than twice about some of my wilder planned schemes.