by Tim Le » Wed Feb 23, 2011 9:40 am
It's interesting to analyze these incidents like an NTSB investigation and see what we can learn from them. But rarely do we get a post-incident analysis. I hope the hiker/skier can give us the story, but based on some facts here's my take on it.
WEATHER
The NWS forecasted the storm to hit hard Friday night, continue into Saturday and taper off Sunday morning. The weather that Saturday morning was different. I was with a friend at Baldy and the entire mountain had mostly clear skies. We noticed only 2-3" of snow had fallen that night instead of the 18+” that the NWS forecasted. We thought the storm might have been a dud and was over. However, we were prepared for a storm because we were there to train in bad weather. By 10am some clouds started to move in. Then by 2pm it was snowing. That night had the heaviest snowfall. The forecast turned out to be right, but the timing was off.
So one possible contributing factor is the subject thought the storm was a bust (and thus over) and decided to hike that day.
According to news reports, he called his family at noon and conditions were near whiteout. Other hikers, however, reported that visibility was 1/4 to 1/2 mile and winds were less than 30 mph. Our experience at Baldy was winds were mostly calm and visibility was normal below 8000 ft. But around 8000 ft there were bands of clouds moving through so whiteout conditions could have existed in local areas.
At this point the subject might have felt that he was not prepared to navigate back to the tram in the worsening conditions and decided to hunker down by building a shelter. He successfully weathered the storm and knew to make the correct distress signal of three X's (or three of anything noticeable).
So the final contributing factor could have been the inability to navigate back to the tram.
Last edited by
Tim Le on Thu Feb 24, 2011 7:13 am, edited 1 time in total.