c2c June 23

[Cy Kaicener]

I could not believe a 5.45 am start labeled as an early start. I am thinking of taking the first tram up and hiking down to Flat Rock with lots of water. I might do the same thing with the outdoorsclub this Saturday.
http://hiking.meetup.com/217/calendar/5 ... ?from=list

[Hikin_Jim]

I hope those guys know what they're doing.

5:45 AM does seem late for this time of year and the weather. At least their leader calls for 1.5 gal (approx 6L) of water (which is good but heavy). If you hike down to meet them, bring your CPR certification; they may need you. The NWS is calling for a high of 106.

[Cy Kaicener]

The combination of the weight of the water and the heat will slow them down even more. They said they were going at a slow pace which probably means that they will slow down for the stragglers of a large group.

[magikwalt]

Saturday morning at 6:00am it will be about 77º and the forecast moves up hourly at about 2º-3º per hour until at 8:00am it’s about 82º. By 9:00am the pace quickens and the temp will increase by 4º-5º per hour. So 9:00am it is expected to grow like this: 9:00am – 86º, 10:00am – 91º, 11:00am – 95º, 12:00pm – 97º, 1:00pm – 100º and 2:00pm – 103º. Please note this forecast is only calling for a max temp of 104º while others have revised for 106º. It’s the overnight low tonight that will be the number to watch since at 5:00am it’s as cool as it will be the whole day.

We all know it gets cooler as we move up and in my former life I was taught to expect about 3º per every 1,000ft of elevation gain. Not knowing anyone’s ability I will use a reasonable pace carrying 1.5 gallons plus associated gear, not being all that familiar with the trail and my belief that probably only the hardcore in a group would come for the torture.

I would expect them to start by 6:00am or perhaps later if they wait for stragglers. After 2.5 -3 hours they’ll make the 3,200ft area where some groups take a break (big mistake with the heat growing). The temp will be about 78º at 9:00am given their elevation. As they continue I would expect they will reach flat rock after 3 more hours or a total elapse time of 6 hours. Elevation gain of 5,500ft with expected temp of 81º. I’ll predict another break as they attempt to regroup the stragglers. I would expect them to leave flat rock around the 6.5 hour mark, temp of 83º at that elevation and moving into the final 1.5 hours of hiking in the direct sunlight.

Some folks reading looking at this could think it’s easy to climb faster than the heat but there are three factors we haven’t considered yet. First, the UV effect increases at a rate of about 5% per 1,000ft., so at this elevation its 28% greater than on the valley floor. Second, the hydration level of their bodies will not be what it was at the trailhead which will increase their body core temps. Third is the heart rate drift effect that happens after extend exercise. As they move away from flat rock/dry falls area their hearts will climb much more quickly due to the drift, fluid loss and the altitude gain. Stops will become more frequent and pace will slow considerably.

The final factor to consider is the relative trend in our forecast. The forecasted high for the weekend has been being revised upward as over the last 4 days. My guess is that if the weatherman misses he will be low and not high. Starting temps could be a couple degrees warmer. My model puts them on a pace to complete in 8.5 hours which is their plan. If the pace slows to 10-14 hours then water issues begin to worry me.

Sure hope to see everyone at the tram bar!

Walt

[Hikin_Jim]

I hope I'm not being to "mother hen" here, but I just sent the organizer, Lee, a quick note, something to the effect, "the predicted high is 106; it's a very steep 'trail;' it's really more of a route than a trail; you'll need route finding skills."

Hopefully that's a) accurate, b) helpful, and c) received well in a timely fashion.

The part that scares me is that Lee's profile says that his hiking level is "a bit above beginner" and he's the leader of the group.

Don't throw too many rocks at me guys; I don't want to infringe on anyone's decision making regarding acceptable risk -- a very personal decision. I just feel really uncomfortable with a beginner leading a group up C2C, especially with a late start. I've said my piece to him. Public duty done; it's up to him now.

I haven't called and put the RMRU on alert or anything.

[Ellen]

Howdy Jim

I feel that you took the responsible action. You're justifiably concerned about their safety.

Many folks on this forum have warned/advised hikers who are new to Skyline to 1) hike with an experienced person and 2) do the first Skyline attempt in cooler weather.

I believe that Perry's purpose in setting up this excellent forum was to educate people in an effort to decrease the number of hikers injured, rescued, or even killed on Skyline.

Hopefully your advice will be heeded.

Miles of smiles,
Ellen

[magikwalt]

Do we have any legal eagles lurking out there? I was wondering if selling $1.00 bottles of Gatoraide at flat rock for $10.00 would put me afoul of the Profiteering Laws?

[magikwalt]

The 2:00pm weather update has slid the morning start temps up 3º from my earlier model. They are now forcasting 8:00am as 80º and move upward at 3º throughout the day. I may have to move the Gatoraide stand down lower than 6,000ft.

Just a note for the early start folks. At midnight its expected to be 89º, 1:00am 85º and 2:00am is 81º. I would think that somewhere between 2:30-3:00am would be about right. That would give you about 5 hours when the valley floor was at or below 81º.

Wow. Perry's Big Loop is sounding better and better. It will be no higher than 80º the whole day up there.

[Hikin_Jim]

I got a very courteous email reply from the hike leader, Lee. He was pretty open to what I had to say. I gave him a link to this forum and to Cy's site. Cy, your site has your email on it, so I passed that on to Lee; I hope you don't mind.

I also passed on to Lee some of the basics about temperature, start times, using electrolytes not just water, potentially waiting until Sept/Oct until things cool down, lack of shade, etc. He seems like a pretty level headed guy, so hopefully he'll do OK, although I still worry about him finding the route. A relatively new hiker leading a group on a tricky to find, 8000+ foot gain desert hike in 100+ degree heat would perhps not be the optimum situation.

[guest]

Hi,
To ad my 2 cents (which this board acts as a good vehicle,go ahead Perry, say I told you so), to help minimize folks running into trouble, especially this time of year.
Your guys (& girl) have covered it already, but here's another way od saying the same thing re. Skyline in the heat:
Leave to early, it's hot
leave to late, it's hot
Go to fast, get hot,
go too slow, get hot!
Take too many, or too long breaks, it gets hotter
Don't stop to re-supply & try to cool down, on & on it goes.

I've found that this time of year, it's very tuff to eat enough, because you don't feel like it, your body wants that same energy to cool & work, not digest.
Don't eat enough, you bonk.
I try to drink as much of my nutrition as possible, but I still have to eat something along the way.

If closing, think long & hard about the Skyline this time of year, it can get very ugly, painful, unrelenting.

Happy (cool) hiking.

ss