High Winds Late Friday , Overnight

[HikingJoe]

AM watching a disturbance off the Pacific Northwest coast coming down. There are indications that this frontal zone will provide enough sinking air behind it to push the winds into High Wind Warning level, with 55mph or higher gusts. Was bringing that into the forecast for a few days, but had to be cautious on it...

The winds will start Thursday, and peak Friday. Palm Springs Aerial Tram Weather Center is on a High Wind Watch for winds coming down the Eastern slopes of the San Jacinto Range ...

Kevin

[bluerail]

I think it's great to have that kind of imformation especially for this group of people. We all make stupid mistakes and although I don't know the whole story, I think you've stood up pretty well to the storm of comments and energy thrown at you.
Thanks for the tip. I hope we continue to get them, it's really cool having someone forecasting for such a specific area when you spend a bit of time there.

[zippetydude]

Okay Kevin, let's see whatcha got.

I'm going out to Calico this weekend, and I'm driving a motorhome that scares the $#!+ out of me when it catches a crosswind. As I'm heading north towards Barstow, will it be a headwind, tailwind, or the dreaded crosswind?

Also, I'm thinking about leaving just after noon, but I can adjust my time to avoid the winds if that will help. If I leave morning, noon, early afternoon, or late afternoon, when do I stand the best chance to avoid the winds?

I realize this is very specific, but hey, it's a chance to shine, right? What say you, Tram Weathermeister?

z

[HikingJoe]

Depends what day.

Friday, Winds from the West which means you are in for a 90 degree angle of attack, the kind of wind you don't like. Crosswind ...

The winds on Friday will develop over the afternoon, however the evening through the overnight into early Saturday morning will be the worst period to drive one of those. Winds over 50+ mph will be likely in that area between that period ...

So if "Friday" you are looking at leaving in the morning or early afternoon or the winds will catch you from the West in that crosswind you don't like.

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If "Saturday" you are looking at leaving at noon. Not only will the wind be blowing out there still in the morning, but the wind will calm down over the mid-morning through the early afternoon that day as the mid/upper level jet and sinking air dynamics move into Arizona.

So for leaving details out, your best time on these days ...

Friday - Morning time - later afternoon and evening will be windy enough to scare anyone driving a crosswind in that vehicle.

Saturday - Afternoon, anytime after 11am actually will be good ...

[AlanK]

OK, Joe/Kevin. I've been critical before. Here's something more positive. You are on record as "Joe" with a pretty specific forecast. Speaking just for myself, I would not mind at all seeing you post after the fact with some comments on how you did. The real test is how you react down the line when you're wrong, which everyone is on occasion. But, as I said before, in more critical posts, I wish you well in your forecasting. We can all use good weather forecasts,especially in specific mountain areas.

[HikingJoe]

If I am wrong, more will see it and I have to admit I was wrong. If wrong, I will write a report and look into the "why" factor and how I may improve in the future ...

That's about all I can do I guess no use saying I was right if I was wrong if many people see the fault.

[halhiker]

I think this is pretty much the consensus forecast and has been for a couple of days. I listened to the CVWD weather forecast yesterday and it predicted cooler temps and winds.

This is the NWS forecast for the mountain.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=33.813384329112786&lon=-116.67205810546875&site=sgx&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en

Not that Kevin's not doing his job but it seems all the weather outlets pretty much concur on this one.

[HikingJoe]

The winds are likely. I blog over at MyDesert.com
http://www.mydesert.com/apps/pbcs.dll/s ... 2c197e410f

Usually the winds are slow to pick up due to the Graphical Forecast found here ...
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/forecasts/graph ... fornia.php

Once this model shows the winds, then all outlets jump on the wind speeds. It did not show this a few days back due to lack of data from the WRF/GFS model which is normal for wind profiles on the graphical ...

I try to stay away from the Graphical Model when doing wind forecasts due to the terrain handling it has in the tramway region especially. It may say 40mph but it doesn't calculate the slope effect that speeds the winds up between the mountain and valley station, in which tower 3 and 4 get hit the worst.

Thursday looks fine.

I've done a Wind Advisory for up to 30-35 mph higher, but not damaging at the mountain station so that should do fine. Nothing too bad.

Friday is when I will need to see if we need to call a meeting about the wind and what time the worst will be. If the worst hits overnight then we will be fine, if the evening, we will need to shut it down before then much like what happened on the 14th and this decision is a hard one I have to make because revenue is to be lost but we need to be safe about the wind.

I talk too much but have a nice night.

[zippetydude]

Hi Kevin. Sorry I forgot to mention which day. We were planning on Friday about 2:00 from Yucaipa, so probably hitting the upper desert around 3:00 and Barstow around 4:00. That now sounds like a bad idea. Roughly what time do you think the winds will actually begin to kick up? We want to be sure we're essentially done with the drive before any serious gusts start. Thanks again for your help.

z

[HikingJoe]

2:00pm - Beginning of the 30 mph wind gusts ...

4:00pm - 40+ mph wind gusts

strongest will be evening through the overnight ...

Not terribly bad at 2-3pm, but not good either.

Winds through the trip will come from your lower left, WSW on the 15 from the Cajon Pass to Barstow, then after Barstow from directly behind you to your destination. Crosswind risk is from Cajon to Barstow only ...

Keep in mind the inside slider will provide enough dynamics for a few showers, maybe even a thunderstorm on Saturday in the High Desert.