zippetydude wrote:Hi HJ. Long time no see: Text me and let me know how things are going...
Hey, Zip! Nice to see you too. Got a deadline tonight; let me text you tomorrow.
zippetydude wrote:I don't mean to hijack the thread, but as a quick aside, " Going back up-canyon just wasn't an option" ? What created the impasse? Cliffed out? Semi-vertical bushwhacking?
It was steep and brushy, but also we had gone over multiple dry falls. In several cases, we grabbed big handfuls of willow branches sticking out over the drop and sort of used it as a climbing rope with which to descend. In other cases, if it wasn't too high, we just jumped. It just didn't seem possible to go back up that brutal hell. Little did we know that the next two days would be just as bad. Maybe we should have just forced ourselves to re-climb all we had descended, but we crossed the Sespe in flood and went downstream.
zippetydude wrote:Back on track, what further information or clues might be forthcoming after the analysis of the additional evidence recently found? They figure out amazing things in cold cases that I would never have discovered...
Well, I imagine Bill had a camera. On the first day, he probably was fine for the better part of the day. He was probably a happy hiker snapping away. Those pics could give us a really solid idea, maybe, depending on just what he photographed or if the GPS of his camera was on, of his route. Also, knowing what maps he had with him might tell us a little about his thinking, but, again, that's a maybe. The camera would be the real score.
On my 1984 hike, I had photos at first, but once I realized that we were in a survival situation, I shoved the camera into the bottom of the backpack, put my head down, and got about the business of staying alive. I do remember developing the film later and having a photo of icicles hanging off of some of the falls that weren't dry. It was freaking cold. Like I say, we should both have been dead.
Of course, Bill's photos might never be made public, and we may never really know.
Personally, I'm starting to think that he really did descend Smith Water Canyon. He was still mobile on Sunday and in good enough shape to ascend to the ridges between Pts 4282 and 3976.
He wasn't injured. It's about 16 to 17 miles from the Juniper Flats Backcountry Board to where Bill was located. A strong hiker could do that in a day, even with some cross country thrown in. Even if it took him two days to get there, he doesn't show up until the morning of the fourth day. Where's he been all this time? And why didn't he just back track as soon as he realized he was in trouble?
I'm guessing, and, yes, it is a guess, that he went for Smith Water cross country from the ridges leading to Quail Mtn. The problem with dropping into Smith Water from the east is that it's steep and dicey, and it just gets steeper the closer you get to the canyon bottom. It can be done if you're decent with maps and take the time to really do your homework, but Bill was doing this all on the fly. If he chose the wrong drop in route to Smith Water, he may have found himself in a situation where he couldn't get up something he had gotten down. Now he's committed. He a) has to get to the bottom of Smith Water and b) has to descend Smith Water in order to get out.
Maybe the first night, Thursday, he finds a flatish spot to lie down somewhere on the walls of Smith Water Canyon. On day two, Friday, he figures out a way to finally get down to the bottom. Particularly if he found water, he might hole up for a day, but at some point, the realization that "no one knows where I am" and "I'm going to die if I don't get myself out of here" sets in. Bill's a survivor and he's not stupid. He waits until nightfall on day 3, Saturday the 26th, and continues to wait until the full moon gives him enough illumination. He moves down canyon. He probably intends to take the little connector trail to the Quail Springs Road and exit via the road, but he, quite understandably, misses the little trail in the poor light. At some point, he realizes that he's gone too far north. He corrects to the east and heads up the wash through which the Mary Trail runs. Somewhere toward the upper end of the wash he either makes a very serious navigational error or decides to try to climb to get signal so he can call for help. A ping does get out, but he doesn't get a call out. At the top of the ridge, his energy, and his luck, run out.
Now, my latest crack pot theory is probably not correct, but something like that had to happen.
- Something had to hold him up from hiking out all on day one. This is one tough dude; after four days in the desert, he's still able to climb up near Pt 4282'.
- He had to have a pretty good reason not to just backtrack to his vehicle which was about 8 miles to the ESE; instead he heads north, farther away, and winds up 4 miles north of Quail Mtn.
- He had to have a reason to be in the mouth of Smith Water Canyon; having just descended Smith Water Canyon would be a pretty good reason to be at the mouth of the canyon.
- There had to be a reason he didn't exit the canyon until Sunday after starting on Thursday. Getting hung up on the descent, holing up somewhere in Smith Water, or a combination of the two could account for the time between Thursday and Sunday.
Again, this very likely is
not exactly how it went, but something along these lines had to have happened.
HJ