Bill Ewasko found?

[Ed]

Yeah....That thing. First, in my defense, I'll say the algorithm weighed the presence of cell coverage very heavily and thus that area was pegged as a high probability locale. But as a human, I am clearly so much smarter than a dumb algorithm and promptly dismissed the entire area since obviously there was no reason he'd climb up there from Quail Wash. Um,...Except apparently there was.

So if you're keeping score:
Bayesian 1, Stupid Human 0

Well, since you had subjective as well as data inputs to the Bayesian analysis, you could say...

Smarter Human + Bayesian 1, Same Human when less smart, 0

I am only a spectator on the Bill Ewasko thread. I am awed by the persistence and technical knowledge of the participants.

[Hikin_Jim]

Well, if it's any help, I'd have never figured him to go up there. Maybe if he were trying to get signal it would make sense. I've climbed otherwise irrelevant ridges in order to get a call out before.

Having been in a rather desperate wilderness survival situation (a day hike turned into a three day hike, without equipment or food), I would comment that the last thing on my mind was my camera or leaving notes. Therefore, we might not find out exactly what happened; we'll see. However, if Bill considered Smith Water solidly reliable in terms of water resupply, he may not have realized what desperate straits he was in until late in the game. We may be able to reconstruct his route from photos taken before he realized that he was in very serious trouble, particularly if his camera were in GPS mode. My money is on Johnny Lang Canyon.

Then again, if he were lucid enough to try to climb to get signal, perhaps we will get his last words and farewell.

All this makes the InReach I bought seem like a really good idea although I have let my PLB lapse. My take is that a PLB is more likely to get a distress signal out but that an InReach has greater utility in that the InReach has two way communication capability.

Of course a PLB continues to broadcast if one loses consciousness, so there's that. I've just been unwilling to fund and carry both. Maybe I should reconsider.

HJ

[RichardK]

I am looking forward to a coroner's report. Do the skeletal remains show any sign of trauma? Bone or skull fractures? What was found with Bill? Pack, phone, maps, how many (now empty) bottles of water? Hopefully, animals did not scatter everything.

This information will guide conclusions on what Bill was doing from Thursday night to the Sunday morning ping and why he was found where he was.

[Hikin_Jim]

This is a danged murky case. Even with knowing approximately where his body was recovered, it's still hard to make sense of it. What logic puts him on the Panorama Trail? (although perhaps, by that point, he could no no longer think logically)

We can't even establish how he got into the Quall Wash area (and points north, i.e the Panorama Trail). There are a few scenarios:

• I still think via Johnny Lang Canyon makes the most sense, but why go NW from there? Maybe he was fixated on water and was going for the West Entrance Station (a bit of a stretch, but maybe), but then what causes him to turn left and go along the Panorama Trail?
• Maybe he went down Smith Water Canyon, but it's hard to see very many good routes into Smith Water Canyon and how (and why!) does he get to Pt 4282' where he was apparently found.
• I suppose he could have descended another one of the canyons between Johnny Lang and Smith Water, but that doesn't put us any closer to understanding why got him to Pt. 4282.

What puts him on Pt. 4282'? Maybe he was trying to get signal or maybe he thought it would be easier for SAR to see him up high, but both of those seem like a bit of a stretch. It seems unlikely that a desperate man on his last legs would go that far out of his way.

Apparently he was uninjured, but perhaps that's about all we can reasonably establish based on his last location.

HJ

[OtherHand]

Keep in mind that if he did traverse Smithwater Canyon he would have come upon the short Smithwater segment that has water year round and we wouldn't be having this discussion. It ain't purdy, but it's drinkable. That doesn't rule out a nasty descent into middle Smithwater from the Quail Mt. region. It's possible to miss the water and hike to the mouth skunked.

We know his phone didn't ping until Sunday morning. So either his phone was off in the interim or he traversed a route without any cell coverage. I think the only two options are either he went via Lang Canyon with no cell coverage or he went over Quail to Smithwater and didn't realize he was in a serious situation until getting to the canyon bottom and not finding the water and then having no cell coverage. A minor variant to either theory would have him instead heading for Quail Springs as a water source and finding it dry.

I have no explanation why someone who could get themselves to this point deep into JTNP wouldn't think to just continue walking the 2 miles across the flat, open desert to Park Road and flag down a car.

[Hikin_Jim]

Keep in mind that if he did traverse Smithwater Canyon he would have come upon the short Smithwater segment that has water year round and we wouldn't be having this discussion. It ain't purdy, but it's drinkable. That doesn't rule out a nasty descent into middle Smithwater from the Quail Mt. region. It's possible to miss the water and hike to the mouth skunked.

When I did my 2012 trip looking for Bill, I studied that map hard. Presumably Bill would have too. I really think the route I picked was the best route down into the canyon (which was why I picked it and was hoping that Bill would have done the same). Map link: https://caltopo.com/m/7Q7H. That route does drop in above the spring which I've marked with a blue dot. But it's hard for me to imagine someone choosing that route deliberately just for hiking purposes. I was on it only because I was looking for Bill.

The spring is roughly 2/3rds of the way up the canyon. If he dropped in any lower than where I did, my hat's off to him as a hiker, but he'd have missed the water. Maybe, just maybe, he was banking on that water as part of his plan. I sure wouldn't ever do that, but who knows? Mr. Ewasko's route and reasoning are hard to figure out. It's too bad he didn't work for the CIA. He could have obscured covert ops such that America could spy unhindered anywhere in the world.

We know his phone didn't ping until Sunday morning. So either his phone was off in the interim or he traversed a route without any cell coverage. I think the only two options are either he went via Lang Canyon with no cell coverage or he went over Quail to Smithwater and didn't realize he was in a serious situation until getting to the canyon bottom and not finding the water and then having no cell coverage. A minor variant to either theory would have him instead heading for Quail Springs as a water source and finding it dry.

And the location of that ping, presumably on or near Pt. 4282', is out and out baffling. If he went down Smith Water, he can turn right, and it's about 4 mi to Park Blvd or he can turn left and it's also about 4 mi to the town of Joshua Tree. Neither of those scenarios put him atop Pt 4282'. If he goes left, the point at which he encounters the Panorama Trail heading east, is only 1.3 maybe 1.4 mile from town. Why the heck would he turn right and head roughly 2.5 miles east to Pt. 4282'? Perhaps he was truly lost and off the edge(s) of the map(s) that he brought. Perhaps he was delirious and aimless, but I still think he had to have something in mind. Going east from Quail Wash on the Panorama Trail makes no sense whatsoever.

My money's on Lang Canyon, but that's still doesn't put him at Pt. 4282'. If he chose Lang Canyon as his route, he had to know that Park Blvd was only 2 miles east. Maybe he was out of his mind re water and headed for that lovely spigot at the West Entrance Station, but why does he then turn left on the Panorama Trail? I guess if he had a good map he could have seen that it was pretty easy to get up to Pt 4282' from the east and maybe he wanted to get a call out. If he were heading for the West Entrance Station and then saw choppers looking for him, maybe he would then decide to get to a high spot in order to be seen. Either of those two scenarios (get a call out or be more easily seen) seem like a stretch.

I have no explanation why someone who could get themselves to this point deep into JTNP wouldn't think to just continue walking the 2 miles across the flat, open desert to Park Road and flag down a car.

Yeah, if he was planning to descend Johnny Lang Canyon, then he had to know about Park Blvd. Why the heck does he go NW and then turn left on the Panorama Trail and head to Pt 4282?

I don't know. Maybe we're doing it all wrong. Maybe he was truly delirious and there just wasn't any rhyme or reason to what he did once he got down into Quail Wash. Maybe we're looking for logic that just doesn't exist.

His maps are probably dust after 12 years, but it sure would be interesting to know if he were carrying 1:24,000 detailed USGS topo maps, the National Geo 1:80,000 map, or something like Tom Harrison's 1:126,120 map. Particularly if the maps were marked up but even if not the maps themselves might tell us something just seeing what he carried. I sure wouldn't try for Smith Water from Quail Mtn with anything less than a 1:24,000.

HJ

[OtherHand]

The idea that he took Quail Wash to it's intersection with the Panorama Trail, then ended up going the wrong way on the trail (counterclockwise) can be discarded. I just had a look at the Serin splash maps and there's really good cell coverage for most of the Panorama Trail from Quail Wash to almost to his final site. Had he been on any of that part of the trail, he would have lit up Serin tower. So he didn't take the Panorama Trail to get to his final spot.

That really only leaves him climbing up the slope to the SE of where he ended up. That's hard to get my mind around as Park Road becomes visible even part way up that slope and it's just over a mile away.

[sk43]

Random thoughts - ignore as you please.

Suppose you wanted to get from Bill's car to Pt 4282, what are your options? Ignore whether they make sense to you or not. The crux of the route is getting from the S side of Quail to the N. I see 4 realistic options, 2 of which have been discussed already.

1. Take trails that parallel Park Blvd. On caltopo I was able to piece together a route that did not involve walking on the shoulder of Park Blvd (Old Lost Horse Trail providing much of the mileage). Rough estimate - 9 miles.

2. CRHT, then off-trail to reach Johnny Lang mine, then trail thereafter. Probably 9 miles again, but didn't measure.

3. CRHT to Smithwater canyon. Rough estimate 14+ miles.

4. CRHT to Covington Flat, down a trail (not sure of the name) to the Bigfoot trail, then East to the Panorama trail. Rough estimate 17+ miles.

One could incorporate an ascent of Quail into options 2, 3, and 4 (and incorporation into 2 and 3 seems to be quite popular) but it would not be essential. Has anyone looked at option 4 before? It makes the least sense, except that it is the most natural way to put Bill on the Panorama trail.

At this URL: https://caltopo.com/m/3LDM it was interesting to note that two tracks from the Orsebo/Nguyen search were along the Panorama trail and passed 300+ feet or so (and 40 to 80 feet lower down) than the 2nd Helo coordinates (which are very close to Pt. 4282.) What looks like the ground track of a helicopter overflight came withn 100 feet. Close, but not close enough.

[chandmer]

To save you the trouble of firing up GE, here's what I saw. Nothing else on the peak stands out in all imagery going back to 2009. If we ever find out exactly where he was found, we can of course check legacy images of that precise point.

Have we considered the possibility that he hitchhiked closer to here, walked up to look at the view, got bit by a snake, and quietly faded into the night? His default plan, for instance, could have been to hitch hike north then walk back to his car one way. I've done this myself on more than one occasion, since it's often easier to flag down a ride on the way out then after a day or two of getting dirty and exiting the trail at 2am.

[Ric Capucho]

https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/ht-bin/tv_browse.pl?id=ff9bf43b78dbec8883e51ef9357999fa

I’ve long thought this map and its neigbours might have had something to do with it.

Anyone has any idea how Bill’s eyesight was? Could it be he couldn’t *see* Park Road in daylight? Or maybe it was invisible during a night time scoot across Quail Springs?

Ric