The trailhead is at about 2,720 ft and the oasis at about 2,800 ft, so technically there's a bit more climbing on the way there than on the way back, since you descend to the oasis and have to clear a ridge or two from the parking lot. But I'm sure signage for the casual visitor is not accurate to the nearest 40 ft like a topo map is. 300 feet over 1.5 miles is not a lot of climbing to do though in the blazing sun it would feel like more.
Here's an article with more information on the hiker's stated motivation, which is always what interests me most:
https://www.desertsun.com/story/news/lo ... 813118002/Mr. Miller is described as an avid hiker. I would expect the 1.5 mile trail with only 300 ft of elevation gain to take him about 45 minutes, one way, if the description of his fitness level is accurate and he was motivated to move along to get in one more hike. He's mentioned as playing sports, including softball, so he is not an average tourist. I'm don't know where in 29 Palms they stayed, but assuming it was one of the hotels clustered around the Stater Brothers at 71727 Twentynine Palms Highway that works out to about a 10 minute drive from hotel to trailhead.
This means that, hypothetically, once he reached the oasis he had another two hours to possibly travel beyond it before the first searchers headed that way. Cross-country in JT, if bouldering is involved, slows you down to about a mile an hour in my experience, depending on how good you are at picking good routes. Since there is no trail extending beyond the oasis and since the terrain around the oasis is rough, I'd say that is likely an outer bound for how far he may have been able to travel before the first searcher(s) found his vehicle, assuming he did not turn around - and I find it unlikely that he did not turn around, since he had to be back by checkout. Additionally, it seems that it was already in the high 80's by the time he started his hike, so he may have hiked slower in that heat, and been motivated to turn around quicker. So perhaps, he could have gone another 3/4 to 1 mile before searches entered the area.
Where am I going with this? In the linked article we find:
They were getting ready to check out of their hotel room in Twentynine Palms the morning of July 13, but he wanted to take one more hike in hopes of spotting – and photographing – some bighorn sheep, so he headed for the 49 Palms Oasis trail in Joshua Tree National park.I'm going to guess that Mr. Miller hiked to the oasis hoping to spot some bighorn sheep coming down for water, and failing to see any, he may have decided to go past the oasis a little bit, or maybe climb up to a ridge, in the hopes of finding some. I am hypothesizing that this was something he really hoped to achieve, given that he was squeezing in one more quick hike before checkout. I know how I get when I really, really want just one more thing out of the desert.
None of that explains why a thorough search turned up nothing, though I have no idea which areas were searched, how far the search extended beyond the oasis, or any of that. I find the reported lack of footsteps interesting, but as I recall that trail is packed pretty hard so maybe it didn't take footprints well. Or, you could head out to some old trail ( 34.115516, -116.111987 ) in the wash southerly from the parking lot that rejoins the current trail later on, if you had in mind surprising some bighorn in a quieter area. There is another old trail at ( 34.116727, -116.110025 ) as well, but that one is easily visible from the main trail IIRC. If he headed for one of these areas instead he may have backtracked on the blacktop a bit before setting off, which would make finding footprints harder since they won't be where you look first.
I'm not sure how much stock to place in the dogs not picking up a scent - I think their effectiveness may be compromised in hot conditions but not sure.
Sound does travel far in the desert - I've been able to have conversations with a hiking companion 100ft away as if we were standing next to each other - but in a way it also gets swallowed easily by rocks and boulders.
Finally, this bit of information:
He also left his cell phone at the hotel – not unusual, Otten said. “He is not a glued-to-his-cell” person, she said. I think there is decent cell coverage on the northerly slopes towards the 62, so he likely was in areas with cell reception at least some of the time. A cell ping or two may have been useful to help searchers know which direction he was going. Incidentally, a different report earlier claimed that he placed a call from the trail. (
http://abc7.com/hiker-missing-for-days- ... k/3778072/ ) Either one of these reporters got it wrong, or speculated about something instead of sticking to facts. Who knows?