Meteorologist.

[OntarioWeatherService]

lol I am. I'm paying for my classes. Saved a bunch up plus a dead grandma.

[MachineHead]

Of course everything you read on the internet is true, because, well, its on the internet!

[OntarioWeatherService]

I try to stay away from wiki though. Some stuff is weird on that.
Who knows, I could be impersonating Kevin Martin of OWS.

[physicslord]

I have a great personality in person, and I'm great in the field.

Oh yeah, I bet you're a real charmer Kevin!

[OntarioWeatherService]

But of course. It's awesome.

[Local Guy]

Who wants a 50% chance of rain forecast? I think the term should say when NWS,Accuweather,TWC says that is

Monday - Cloudy with a we don't have a clue forecast for rain.

So your philosophy is to ignore all uncertainty in a forecast and go with "it will rain" or "it won't rain." Ok, since you know so much, here's a challenge for you. We have a highly amplified upper air pattern setting up for next week. A strong upper level low cuts off from the main jet and retrogrades back towards southern California. Some models indicate it will take more of an inland track which would result in a surface high over the Great Basin. Some indicate it will end up offshore which would put it in a favorable location for rain. Depending on its track, we could be looking at offshore flow OR we could be looking a showers and thunderstorms.

So Kevin, is it going to rain on my cousin's house in Moreno Valley next weekend (21st-23rd)? Note, the question is not "what is the chance that it will rain in the Inland Empire", but specifically "is it going to rain on my cousin's house in Moreno Valley next weekend (21st-23rd)?

When an event is expected to be convective vs stratiform, do you forecast a 100% chance of rain for your entire area even if some (or most) of that area does not see rain? It's easy to say "Yes it will rain" 2 days before a storm, but can you tell someone definitively, "Yes, it will rain at your house" and be right every single time they ask? Not possible. Hence, if you use the "point forecast" that the NWS provides, or the city zip code forecasts provided by people like AccuWeather and weather.com, you will never see 100% chance of rain unless a widespread stratiform rainfall event is expected. But if you think you can do better, I'd like to see you try. The question is not "will it rain" but "where specifically it will rain."

[OntarioWeatherService]

The problem with what you are saying is telling me to say yes or no this far out. I provide a prelim forecast 3 days before it, then another 2 days before it and then the FINAL forecast is given which tells what will happen a whole day before the event.

So you asking me to do that is impossible right now. I base on the final forecast.

For credibility and getting more people to view your stuff you say WHAT WILL HAPPEN, and then if you bust explain WHY it didn't happen and what you will do next time this comes up.

This is a cutoff system yes, and this is a very potent one at that. The vorticy advection that will come in will be in a sharp gradient. That, combined with these warmer temps vs this colder low, with moisture in it creating a gradient of dry South Moist north will be enough to fire off convective activity.

The lack of low level moisture and low level wind flow is the problem that we have to not have strat precip.

[MachineHead]

But of course. It's awesome.

You realize that you fit the DSM's definition of a Narcisist

[OntarioWeatherService]

Nah , I fit in the definition of someone how has sacrificed his entire life to forecast Southern California weather and prove NWS sucks here, and so does the news. That is why I am the way I am. I've done way more than all of them to help these people out and understand their terrain better.

[halhiker]

If you want the weather, go to cvwd.org and check it out there. It's under the conservation & education link. If you want, send Carl Garczynski an e-mail and see what he says about the mountains. NO ONE knows more about the local weather than Carl. He's been in the valley over 40 years. Oh, and he climbs mountains.