OK, so what have we got? Uh, not much that's solid, but let's look at some possible theories:
1.
Alternate Road Head. Bill is injured and decides to head to Lower Covington because it's closer. Pros: It puts Bill in the direction of the ping. Cons: The Lower Covington Roadhead really isn't all that much closer than the road head where Bill has a vehicle. Lower Covington is shown as a dirt road. In other words, Lower Covington is a lesser visited spot. Therefore, there's no compelling reason for him to go to Lower Covington. In addition, the chances of getting a ping out at 10.6 miles from the tower are limited since the trail to Lower Covington is not in view of the tower.
2.
Northern Bail Out. Bill is injured. He wants out of there fast. The region to the north (Samuelson's Rocks, Quail Springs Road, etc.) looks appealingly close. He heads down a canyon or ridge to the north. Pros: There is a sort of optical illusion that makes the northern area look closer than it actually is. Cons: Bill is a map guy. He probably can see on a map that it's farther than it appears. The nothern bail out also requires him to go XC in an unfamiliar area when there's no real compelling reason to go that direction. Further, the northern bail out doesn't put him within 10.6 miles of the cell tower.
3.
Alternate Route Back -- West. For whatever reason, Bill decides to take a different route back to his vehicle. He doesn't summit Quail, perhaps due to his late start, so there's no pings from up top. He heads west to the Calif. Riding & Hiking Trail sort of along the lines of
Sierra Club HPS route 3. He gets lost or injured along the way. Pros: Somewhat plausible in that Bill's likely route up (the gully with the bandana found nearby) isn't much fun on a hot day. Maybe Bill decides there's got to be a better way, and off he goes. If he does get to the CR&HT, he'll have an easy trek back to his car. Cons: A westerly route doesn't put him within 10.6 miles of the cell tower.
4.
Alternate Route Back -- SE. For whatever reason, Bill decides to take a different route back to his vehicle. He goes down the SE ridge along the lines of
Sierra Club HPS route 1. Pros: This is a better route. Cons: It would be highly likely that he summited if he chose this route, and we should have more pings than just one, and a SE route doesn't put him within 10.6 miles of the cell tower.
5.
Smith Water Canyon. Bill is injured and decides he can't make it back to his vehicle. He holes up for a while awaiting rescue, but eventually decides he's got to find water or he's a goner. He heads to Smith Water thinking that it's relatively close and that there will be water there. En route, he passes
point 5652. Here, he's in the coverage area of the cell phone tower. Either his phone is still on and gets a ping out, or, hitting a high point, he tries to fire up his phone for one last attempt to summon help before descending to Smith Water. Either way a ping gets out. He then descends to Smith Water. Pros: Water + desperation is the best explanation for why he went
away from his vehicle. Heading toward Smith Water puts him more or less 10.6 miles from the cell tower, and has him passing through areas with coverage. Cons: The area has been searched and he hasn't been found.
6.
Stubbe Spring. He headed down to Stubbe Spring and tried to make it to the Coachella Valley. Pros: He'd definitely need water, and there's a lot of room to get lost in that direction. Cons: If he has the strength and ability to get to Stubbe, why didn't he just go straight back to the car? Also, heading toward Stubbe places him no where near the 10.6 mile radius from the cell tower.
Note:
There can be several more variations on the Alternate Route Back theme, but none of them take Bill within 10.6 miles of the cell tower.
Comments:
Really, the only theory out of the bunch that a) provides a compelling reason to move in the opposite direction of Bill's vehicle AND b) puts Bill near the 10.6 mile radius from the cell tower is the Smith Water theory. It's a great theory in all respects but one: Bill isn't there.
Repeated searches haven't found anything.
HJ