by jdclifford » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:23 pm
So I'm back and the mission was not successful. I did, however, have a lot of fun.
Just to somewhat briefly lay out my evolving theories, which were created with respect to where people have already searched:
When I first spent 3 days there in January, I mainly searched to the east of Smith Water Canyon and near the northern boundary on that eastern side as well. I believed that he had made it to Smith Water Canyon or near there. Given the heat, he would have been hiking at night and been lured northern by the lights of civilization. Except, this would seem a lot more viable if it wasn't a full moon or damn near close to one at the time he was out there. Near full moon, I would imagine Bill would see Park Blvd in the moonlight.
I got so into this case that I decided to use up a vacation week in February and March to look for Bill. In February, I strictly stayed on the Covington side. I had been looking at Google Satellite images and thought he may have found some relief from the sun under a California Juniper or some other kind of tree or bush Looking at the map of GPS tracks, I saw some gaps that I thought should at least be filled in. My first day in Febrary I climbed up the mountain north of Smith Water Canyon. The hiker in me loved it, but I felt like I was probably wasting my time there. I just can't see somebody in Bill's predicament going down the south side of Smith Water and hiking up the north. It doesn't make sense and it might not be physically possible given his situation. I also put some time into searching Upper Covington Flats.
My theory heading into this last trip was that Bill had not hiked Quail, but hiked to the west of there and had somehow gotten lost. I also read Ric's post several years ago that made me really question the cell phone ping reading accuracy. First, I wanted to check out Juniper Flats (which I had not yet been to), to get a greater feel for the landscape, and then I wanted to return to Upper Covington Flats to conduct more searching. Well, I ended up messing up my lower back the very first morning I was in the area. I camped in BLM dispersed camping land the night before and nearly got stuck in a pothole that had been flooded by rains earlier in the day. The next morning I see a guy get stuck in these potholes. He used my phone to call a friend and, being a local in the know, he told me that tow truck companies refused to go out there. Nearly getting stuck in my 2-wheel drive Jeep Patriot the night before, I started sweating it. Tow truck companies won't help and I don't know a soul out there, so I friggin' floored the damn thing over these potholes. I ended up ripping half the bumper cover off my vehicle and, having gone over these potholes in such a violent nature, messed up my lower back. I was more mad about my back potentially getting in the way of my searching. My first two days, both at Juniper, basically just amounted to camping and resting my back. Once there, I figured that if the ping was inaccurate, it probably wouldn't be that wildly innacurate. It was also a much more vast area than I imagined. Nevertheless, it was important to see where Bill started his hike. When I moved to Upper Covington, I was surprised by how good the cell reception was at the southern end. This practically killed my leading theory that Bill had stumbled into there lost. This led to me, though still camping in Upper Covington, to only search in Lower Covington thereafter. My previous plans had been to conduct a more thorough searching of Upper Covington. I, admittedly, have not read through the entire forum thread because I did not want it to give me too much bias, though this might have been a mistake. I will be reading through its entirety before I go back to Joshua Tree sometime in 2021. I'm a little sick of Joshua Tree right now, but I'll definitely be back for at least one more vacation week to search next year if nobody finds Bill before then. Very possibly more than one week. In the meantime, I have some closer lost person cases in or near SW New Mexico to keep me busy.
Current theory: Geez, who knows? I believe that when I go back I will be searching gaps in between current GPS tracks between Quail and Smith Water Canyon. I am also now firmly in the "cell phone ping was innacurate" camp.
And as far as Coronavirus interest goes: I have never been there on a spring break before, but it certainly didn't feel like a spring break. It was also unseasonably chilly, with me needing to wear a long-sleeve every day I was there. I can't even say that for January. Upper Covington was absolutely DEAD, except for my last day hiking. Covington Flats was absolutely besieged on Saturday. I couldn't believe the number of cars filtering in. When I arrived at the Joshua Tree Inn, the receptionist filled me in that the gated areas of the park had closed to vehicles and then it all made sense. I definitely got lucky on this trip. Covington was so quiet and peaceful while I camped there...not anymore.
And lastly, I noticed on the Gaia app a track from somebody else last month which I had not exported. Does this mean you would already have access to my tracks Tom, or do I need to send them to you?