Story of missing hiker in Joshua Tree NP

[OtherHand]

If he's got a topo, how might that change his route selection?

Well, if he's got a topo, the ridge on this map marked by points "F", "G", "H", and "I" stands out. Everything else has some pretty closely crowded topo lines (i.e. steep). Particularly if he's injured he may have thought long and hard about an easy way down to Smith Water Canyon. Note on the map that I've drawn a route from the SE to Smith Water. The saddle just SW of pt. 5652 (point "C") makes more sense to use if you've got a topo and want to use the ridge as your route of travel. Just a thought.

Interesting as well is that Smith Water Canyon is roughly 10.6 miles from the cell phone tower. There is a patch of cell phone coverage from the tower at point "C".

We've done that very ridge twice, JT27 and JT30. Sierra Madre SAR has also been up parts of it. I can say with a pretty good level of certainty Bill ain't on that ridge. But I was sort of surprised not to find him there.

[OtherHand]

The cell phone ping seems to be the big issue that everyone's concentrating on but I have to wonder how reliable that is. I live less than two miles from a cellphone tower and yet I sometimes don't get calls and voicemails appear hours—or longer—later. I wonder if the info could have finally been cobbled together enough to represent a ping but could have been from days earlier and perhaps from further away than the suggested 10 odd miles. I am not a phone tech but I know radio waves can be screwy. I mean, I get AM radio waves from Utah sometimes at night.

I guess my question is: Is that ping absolutely reliable or could it have been delayed until the server processed the info?

To know for certain, we'd need to talk to a Verizon engineer. I wrote up my layperson's assessment of it in this document.

But a "ping" is the connection of a specific telephone to a cell system, and the phone is identified by either serial number or phone number. That should NOT be subject to error. Where error does occur is in computing the distance and bearing to the phone, so that's open for debate. And you could have a phone showing bars but not really connecting to the cell system.

[Hikin_Jim]

I decide to do Jtree in June. It's hot but I'm going anyways becuase I just came from Georgia. I get there and it is hot so I skip Quail Peak altogether because I don't want the hard up hill. I'm thinking I heard of this place called Smith canyon. Pics show trees and water. Rather flat to get there and an established trail. Perfect.

I get to the canyon and something tragic happens. Snakebite or Hard getting down some of those rocks with water and i break my leg bad, or something. I know I'm in trouble because i haven't had cell phone service at all on my hike. So I wait it out, theres water and a bit of protection from the elements. Someone will come. 2 days and no one. I gotta get out where there may be phone service. Straight up out of the canyon. I'm thinking the northeast side because cell strength might be stronger there closer to Yucca Valley. On my way up the wall on the 27th just as I get my "ping" off I have my 2nd tragedy and die.

It's possible, and the area you indicate may be worth another look.

However, consider:
I'm injured in some fashion and down in the bottom of a canyon. I'm going to climb up out of a nasty-steep canyon like Smith Water?
Maybe, but it seems less likely.

Also, if Smith Water was his objective, why go in from the Juniper Flats Trailhead if it's so hot? Shoot, get in the a/c'd car and drive to Lower Covington. HECK of a lot shorter hike if all you're after is Smith Water.

ON OTHER FRONTS
I kind of doubt that Bill is down at the actual bottom of Smith Water. I've read a number of trip reports of people going up and down Smith Water. It looks like Smith Water itself gets fairly regular traffic. If he were there, I think someone would have come across him by now. I suppose it's possible that Bill found a little sheltered spot 15 feet above the stream bed and is under a bush Norman Cox-like right under our noses, but I think the most likely scenario is that he never made it to Smith Water.

HJ

[Hikin_Jim]

We've done that very ridge twice, JT27 and JT30.

Yeah, I know. And JT34 also.

Sierra Madre SAR has also been up parts of it. I can say with a pretty good level of certainty Bill ain't on that ridge. But I was sort of surprised not to find him there.

Well, thank you for that. Dang. Where the heck are ya, Bill?

Hey, OtherHand, have you got a detailed track plot of the Sierra Madre initial search on that ridge that you could post somewhere? Yes, I see it on the overview, but I can't make out any details.

HJ

[OtherHand]

Hey, OtherHand, have you got a detailed track plot of the Sierra Madre initial search on that ridge that you could post somewhere? Yes, I see it on the overview, but I can't make out any details.

Sure. Since screenshots of the whole mess in GE seem popular, that's what I did. The original search tracks are in orange, and ours are in red. The green line is the 10.6 mile radius and the yellow line is an 11.1 mile radius (+5%). The blue lines are existing trails. Pretty good coverage in this end of Smith Water.

There may be a couple more tracks that are missing, as I know one of our guys didn't have a GPS when we did our first ascent of the south slopes of Smith Water. He went up the ravine just to the SW of our three tracks.

I parked it here for a while:
http://www.otherhand.org/Stuff/swsmithwater.jpg

[Hikin_Jim]

Those tracks go right through the areas that I would most want to search. Crap (in a way). I was hoping to spot some gap in a place that would be interesting to search. But no. You've covered some of the natural choke points of the terrain, the spots where an injured person might get hung up, and even the very final descent into Smith Water, although maybe a little more searching is warranted at the tip of that ridge just before the final descent to Smith Water. Maybe he got that far but couldn't make the final descent. It occurs to me that he may have given up if he couldn't see water in the canyon below, something that very well might happen in late June.

HJ

[Hikin_Jim]

OK, so what have we got? Uh, not much that's solid, but let's look at some possible theories:

1. Alternate Road Head. Bill is injured and decides to head to Lower Covington because it's closer. Pros: It puts Bill in the direction of the ping. Cons: The Lower Covington Roadhead really isn't all that much closer than the road head where Bill has a vehicle. Lower Covington is shown as a dirt road. In other words, Lower Covington is a lesser visited spot. Therefore, there's no compelling reason for him to go to Lower Covington. In addition, the chances of getting a ping out at 10.6 miles from the tower are limited since the trail to Lower Covington is not in view of the tower.
2. Northern Bail Out. Bill is injured. He wants out of there fast. The region to the north (Samuelson's Rocks, Quail Springs Road, etc.) looks appealingly close. He heads down a canyon or ridge to the north. Pros: There is a sort of optical illusion that makes the northern area look closer than it actually is. Cons: Bill is a map guy. He probably can see on a map that it's farther than it appears. The nothern bail out also requires him to go XC in an unfamiliar area when there's no real compelling reason to go that direction. Further, the northern bail out doesn't put him within 10.6 miles of the cell tower.
3. Alternate Route Back -- West. For whatever reason, Bill decides to take a different route back to his vehicle. He doesn't summit Quail, perhaps due to his late start, so there's no pings from up top. He heads west to the Calif. Riding & Hiking Trail sort of along the lines of Sierra Club HPS route 3. He gets lost or injured along the way. Pros: Somewhat plausible in that Bill's likely route up (the gully with the bandana found nearby) isn't much fun on a hot day. Maybe Bill decides there's got to be a better way, and off he goes. If he does get to the CR&HT, he'll have an easy trek back to his car. Cons: A westerly route doesn't put him within 10.6 miles of the cell tower.
4. Alternate Route Back -- SE. For whatever reason, Bill decides to take a different route back to his vehicle. He goes down the SE ridge along the lines of Sierra Club HPS route 1. Pros: This is a better route. Cons: It would be highly likely that he summited if he chose this route, and we should have more pings than just one, and a SE route doesn't put him within 10.6 miles of the cell tower.
5. Smith Water Canyon. Bill is injured and decides he can't make it back to his vehicle. He holes up for a while awaiting rescue, but eventually decides he's got to find water or he's a goner. He heads to Smith Water thinking that it's relatively close and that there will be water there. En route, he passes point 5652. Here, he's in the coverage area of the cell phone tower. Either his phone is still on and gets a ping out, or, hitting a high point, he tries to fire up his phone for one last attempt to summon help before descending to Smith Water. Either way a ping gets out. He then descends to Smith Water. Pros: Water + desperation is the best explanation for why he went away from his vehicle. Heading toward Smith Water puts him more or less 10.6 miles from the cell tower, and has him passing through areas with coverage. Cons: The area has been searched and he hasn't been found.
6. Stubbe Spring. He headed down to Stubbe Spring and tried to make it to the Coachella Valley. Pros: He'd definitely need water, and there's a lot of room to get lost in that direction. Cons: If he has the strength and ability to get to Stubbe, why didn't he just go straight back to the car? Also, heading toward Stubbe places him no where near the 10.6 mile radius from the cell tower.

Note:
There can be several more variations on the Alternate Route Back theme, but none of them take Bill within 10.6 miles of the cell tower.

Comments:
Really, the only theory out of the bunch that a) provides a compelling reason to move in the opposite direction of Bill's vehicle AND b) puts Bill near the 10.6 mile radius from the cell tower is the Smith Water theory. It's a great theory in all respects but one: Bill isn't there. Repeated searches haven't found anything.

HJ

[drndr]

I accidentally put northeast wall of smithwater in an earlier post but meant the north westerly one, the one where hardly any search has been done.

I've only been through there once but is it that ridiculous to think he may not be on that side? I noticed basically no search of that side has been done so is the terrain that obvious he's not there? I know it's steep but in one desparate attempt as opposed to hiking all the way back to car? Maybe?

[Hikin_Jim]

I accidentally put northeast wall of smithwater in an earlier post but meant the north westerly one, the one where hardly any search has been done.

I've only been through there once but is it that ridiculous to think he may not be on that side? I noticed basically no search of that side has been done so is the terrain that obvious he's not there? I know it's steep but in one desparate attempt as opposed to hiking all the way back to car? Maybe?

Hmm. Long shot for an injured person in distress to climb a steep canyon wall, but since we've exhausted the more likely possibilites, perhaps.

HJ

[OtherHand]

I've only been through there once but is it that ridiculous to think he may not be on that side? I noticed basically no search of that side has been done so is the terrain that obvious he's not there? I know it's steep but in one desparate attempt as opposed to hiking all the way back to car? Maybe?

I've looked across at that slope from the southerly side. It's an ugly climb for no apparent purpose. The canyon walls really channel someone up or down the canyon. I'm usually pretty good with wild and crazy ideas, but even I can't think of a reason Bill would want to try and climb that.

Jim: Good theorizing. I note that none of your alternative are absolutely impossible, just varying shades of unlikely. I think that's where things are, all the likely places have been checked, and it will turn out to be a low probability spot. Or someplace so off the wall no one has even yet thought of it.

I was out in JT yesterday, noodling around Stubbe Spring loop. New write up on the site at:
http://www.otherhand.org/home-page/sear ... 6-5092012/