adamghost wrote:Here's a thought experiment.
Assume that this is a straight lost hiker scenario and not something more oddball. Then from there further assume the following two facts, that I think are likely given what we currently know:
1. Bill was less than 10.6 miles from the tower during the ping
2. Bill was not at Upper Covington Flat.
Operating on those assumptions alone, far and away the most likely place for Bill to be is the north side of Smith Water.
Can anyone come up with a reasonable scenario that puts Bill there? The topography is pretty daunting, and the only semi-reasonable way to get up there that I know of would be from a point well to the north of the Lower Covington trailhead from the road - in other words, Bill would leave the road to go up there, and he'd miss a ranger by a very narrow margin in so doing. Thoughts?
I have an alternate theory. I'll provide the overview first, so you can all quickly conclude that I'm full of it without reading the whole post.
Mr. Ewasko's plan is to visit the Johnny Lang mine and then proceed north through Johnny Lang Canyon. Once out of the canyon, his plan to head east toward the Park Road, then return south to his car. By the time he reaches the north end of the canyon, he has an emergency; either heat related or perhaps a leg injury. He decides to self-rescue by heading for the west entrance station by proceeding north/northwest. He gets as far as the hills close to the park road. (I'll post a map once I figure out how that works. )
This area has not been searched as far as I can tell. It is not covered by any of the searches on Otherhand's website. It is too far north to be on the map released by the feds in response to Otherhand's FOIA request, but it appears it may have been overflown by a helicopter once.
The investigators found directions or an itinerary in the rental car which suggests that Mr. Ewasko's plan was to enter the park through the west station. If that is how he entered the park, then he would have been aware of the location, as well as the fact it is manned until 5pm and that there is water there (at least according the park map).
At the location where he has exited Lang Canyon and decides to head north, he is actually closer to the entrance station than he is to his car. Also, if he had a right leg injury, he might not have been able to drive.
Weaknesses:
1. The area that I'm suggesting to search is close to the park road, is not difficult terrain, and has at least two well used trails through it. If he is here, he must have left the trails to find shelter, or tried an unused route through those hills.
2. The safest alternative once out the north end of Lang Canyon would have been to head straight for the Park Road, so he would have decided to self-rescue over a safer alternative.
3. The distance from the cell tower is less than 10.6 miles, but I don't personally think that alone rules out this theory. The Park Ranger who wrote the report quoted the Verizon tech as saying, more or less, "10.6 miles, or at least 90% of it." Factoring in a measurement error of 2.5%, I think the range is about 9.3 miles to 10.9 miles, which is more or less what a couple of other folks have suggested.
4. This theory doesn't explain the timing of the ping, as I'm suggesting Mr. Ewasko was probably stationary by the end of the first day.
I'll try to upload the map soon.
Gerry