Debate OWS forecasts

[OntarioWeatherService]

Does Google Earth count as hiking?

[magikwalt]

The 900 Friends Hotline has the next winning lottery numbers for whoever wants them. Seems they just don't know when or which lottery will be hit.

Here is some info that according to Wikipeda would be needed for an Earthquake Prediction. Post up the answers so that we have a prediction and then we'll wait.

A meaningful earthquake prediction must have all the following elements:

Specific area
Specific magnitude or magnitude range
Specific time window
Estimate of probability compared to random chance
A physical basis
A meaningful 'forecast' does not require the same accuracy, rather the term refers to prognostications on a longer time scale that are usually probabilistic.

If you'll tell me where the event will be centered I'll hike over and verify it. That way this whole thread will have some reason to be posted on a hiking board.

[Local Guy]

People can get a better forecast than the NWS provides in Southern California.

How do you know your forecasts are better than the NWS when not even 2 days ago, you stated,

"Sounds good, where is their forecast for that area at? lol. never looked on their site. NWS"

If you never look at the NWS site, then your first claim is all just speculation.

[OntarioWeatherService]

Off topic discussions

[OntarioWeatherService]

Tornado event they missed.
http://ontarioweatherservice.com/9207pressrelease.html

Not seeing vort dynamics ahead of time.
http://ontarioweatherservice.com/829300 ... lease.html

Not seeing Dean's remnants effecting us like it did.
http://ontarioweatherservice.com/82707pressrelease.html


And more. NWS has NO IDEA how to forecast Southern California weather. I won't trust a bunch of yahoos that aren't native to Southern California to know my forecast area.

[physicslord]

I'll second Alan.

One of the many things that detracts from the OWS site, is poor use of the English language.

[OntarioWeatherService]

Spelling etc doesn't matter much. It's how accurate the person is that counts. I spent a lot of my life on weather. It ruined my life basically so I have no choice to keep studying it that I didn't care for writing style much.

[AlanK]

Ability to communicate clearly matters a lot. No one demands perfection these days, but your posts are hard to read at times. I am not trying to dump on you. Communications skills are worth developing no matter what you do with your life.

If you choose to stick with technical areas, you are also well-advised to avoid making claims like "my theory is published" when it isn't. Credibility is essential if you are interested in being taken seriously as a weather forecaster, earthquake predictor, or just about anything else. You don't get to lose all credibility more than once.

OK, I'm not your mother. My $0.02 you can take or leave.

[HikeUp]

Spelling etc doesn't matter much. It's how accurate the person is that counts. I spent a lot of my life on weather. It ruined my life basically so I have no choice to keep studying it that I didn't care for writing style much.

Yet even more advice If it takes someone about 15 minutes to decipher your forecasts because you do not use good punctuation or grammar, then they are unlikely to read them. Also, trying to impress your readers with terms such as "vorts" and "mountain waves" and "offshore islands" (where else would an island be? ), only adds to your forecasts' uselessness to the average hiker. I won't be reading your forecasts nor Michael's - he has the same disregard for good communication that you seem to have.

[MachineHead]

Hard for my to say, however with weather, thunderstorms can be formed in different ways.

So quakes are the same way. Low pressure can cause them, rain into the ground water can also make faults slip..Geomagnetics as well. Ear tones people here. A bunch of stuff contributes to quakes and can be used as a prediction method just as weather is.

The magnetic field is what I'm getting at. The readings come from a satellite called ACE that measures incoming particles. These charge the magnetic field.

Ok, this is rediculous. You think rain causes earthquakes. So does my 4-year old cousin. That doesnt mean its true.

Your friends with Jim Berkland. He conveniently only published the 10% of his predictions which were remotely true. The ones which were downright wrong are nowhere to be found.

But you know what, it doesnt matter, you're just like him. You'll ignore all logical scientific evidence against you and continue to open your mouth and reveal your ignorance on a great many topics.

You only remember the predictions where you're right. Its useless to argue with someone who cant formulate any logical argument.

My grandma says its going to rain. She can feel it in her bones. It will rain. Eventually. And eventually there will be an earthquake.

Tell me this. What is the R^2 correlatiion factor between the number of earthquake predictions thus far and actual occurances? Here's a hint: R^2 = 1 if you throw out all the points which dont correlate.