Debate OWS forecasts

[AlanK]

I'm saying that the core material is attracted toward the charged magnetic field. It sends out a wave, like an ocean tsunami out in the direction of attraction. The core does not need to rebound it's self. It may swing to one side and kinda rebound slowly.

Is a charged magnetic field different from the usual uncharged variety?

I've been studying quakes for a very long time and what may cause them. I have 2 theories I developed. One weather, One Space weather. Each in the category I expert at..."Weather"

Long time? 20 years? 30 years?

How does one get to be an expert these days. Is it purely self-annointment?

Boy am I getting old!

Folks out there -- listen to HikeUp.

[HikeUp]

You da man, Alan!!!

[physicslord]

Boy am I getting old!

Folks out there -- listen to HikeUp.

I'm just trying to get some questions answered here about this new theory is all!

[AlanK]

I guess it's safe to divulge some secrets here.

One key to earthquake prediction is to never actually predict one in advance. Nothing ruins ones reputation faster than that first failed prediction. What works is lots of charts and equations that explain how you would have predicted a lot of quakes that already happened.

Astrologers and psychics have it a lot easier. They make predictions (and charge for them if can get away with it, which sme can) with impunity. The key is to put out the next batch before the skeptics are done analyzing the last one. This happens every year in the tabloids. A psychic who never does better than random chance just brazenly comes out with more forecasts while the dry, boring statisticians are telling an audience of zero that last year's record was another strike out.

The other key is, of course, to annoint yourself as an expert.

[OntarioWeatherService]

Jim Berkland is highly respected and a great friend of mine. He does predict quakes as well.
Quakes have different triggers.
Besides, I was hit by lightning in 2003. This is where I became a Savant in Weather and Patterns. I can't help it that I know this stuff.

Geomagnetic
Fault slip over time
Weather

list goes on.

Many factors.

[physicslord]

There's like a standard way things go with these.

Here's an example:

CRACKPOT: I have a new theory to predict the appearance of supernovas. They're caused by aliens. You can't prove I'm wrong! It could be true. Ha, I'm so smart.

ME: Okay, tell me when the next supernova will occur.

CRACKPOT: Oh, well, I can't give you the exact date. It's too complicated.

ME: Then you don't have a very useful theory. A useful theory must be able to predict something specifically.


That's the problem with this earthquake theory. It COULD be true. It CAN'T be conclusively proved wrong because the interaction of faults and "magma chambers" with these supposed shock waves is so complicated. But, because the theory is so complicated, it can't be relied upon to make specific predictions. And thus it isn't a useful theory.

We can't just all duck and cover under our desks every time there's a solar storm. They happen too often.

[OntarioWeatherService]

The problem with today's earthquake theory is the ground. You cannot see through the crust and cannot see the patterns in the planet much.
In weather forecasting we have all the flow patterns to see what should happen in the atmosphere for us on the ground.
The Earth is hiding the patterns. If we were able to see through the Earth like we can the sky, we'd have earthquake predictions as good as the weather.

[physicslord]

Jim Berkland is highly respected and a great friend of mine.

And Jillian Barbarie is a great friend of mine. Jeez.

[AlanK]

Besides, I was hit by lightning in 2003. This is where I became a Savant in Weather and Patterns.

OK, a confidence-inducing statement! I mean, combine that with 20-30 years of study of earthquakes and we'reall believers.

Wasn't Einstein struck by lightning as a kid? No? How do you know?

I can't help it that I know this stuff.

No one holds you responsible. Trust me.

[HikeUp]

Jim Berkland is highly respected and a great friend of mine.

And Jillian Barbarie is a great friend of mine.

Are we naming people we know? I saw Jay Leno on the street once. Almost met him. So I could say I almost know him. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.