Meteorologist.

[Local Guy]

I figured the contest would still revolve around the San Bernardino Mountains despite being on this site... but if you want to include San Jacinto Mountains, then why not add verification points? Make one verification point Big Bear (Lake or City), and make one of the San Jacinto points Idyllwild. Sure, neither of these are in the wilderness, but if your forecast are spot on for these points, it's a pretty good bet your forecast would be fairly accurate for the wilderness areas too. From what I gathered, the point of a contest would be to see who's the better forecaster (keeping it fun of course! That means no trash talking!). The only way to truly see who is a better forecast is to stick with places that we can reliable obtain accurate observations from. Too many unknowns when it comes to the wilderness (who's measuring the snow and how? Who's obtaining daily temperature records and with what kind of instrumentation?).

Also, I assume this forecast contest would include non-stormy days as well?

[OntarioWeatherService]

I'm great with jet stream dynamics so winds will be fun for me!

Anyway, I don't know if it will be fair.

Michael does not have Meteorology classes behind him.

I've done 2 at Penn State, and now doing Mississippi University Online Meteorology for broadcasting.

Is this fair? I obviously have more education in forecasting...

[physicslord]

With all due respect Kevin, I do not think 2 college classes puts you at a significant advantage.

Don't worry.

[Perry]

If a true forecast contest is to be run...

Well, I don't have time to run a contest, at least I don't have enough time to do a very good job at running a contest. But if anyone else is interested in making it formal.... And Michael doesn't want to compete. It would be very simple if I just put up a section entitled "Weather Forecasting -- Non-official predictions by citizen weather enthusiasts." and members could make their own judgements about *weather* somebody is accurate or not...

Edit: typo, the slip-up non-pun type.

[OntarioWeatherService]

lol ok, then let the games begin...somehow...I don't know the rules, grounds etc.

[OntarioWeatherService]

I guess there is no contest really. Maybe a weather section where people can post weather stuff, and significant events possible then?

[Local Guy]

Well, if a contest ever gets going, keep in mind that most people have a family and job to deal with as well, making daily forecast through the entire winter impossible. Everyone would have to settle on as set of forecast days (like every mon, wed, and fri). However, this seems to be a mute point as no one really has shown interest in the forecast contest except Kevin, and he has yet to be very helpful with the "laying out of the ground rules" process - although some input has been received.

If more than one or two people show any interest in participating, I'd be willing to draft up rules and a scoring system - but I would need to see some more interest first. It's not worth it otherwise.

I do suggest that if you are interested in testing your skills, try the national forecast contest. Then you would get to go up against students, teachers, and professional Meteorologists alike! If you do well there, then you would have something substantial to back your claims up with.

Food for thought.

[Cy Kaicener]

OntarioWeatherService - Thanks for all the information you have been giving us. We really need it. I have been using http://theweather.com for 10 day forecasts in the San Bernadino area. What is your opinion of their service. I have the San Bernadino link on the front page of my website http://www.hiking4health.com

[OntarioWeatherService]

The only ones I would trust is local sites. Nothing big like accuweather or the weather channel. They go off the models, and the models are not always right. They can be wrong when it comes to certain factors locally like a jet stream overhead or convergence zones etc that can make the weather different. Who wants a 50% chance of rain forecast? I think the term should say when NWS,Accuweather,TWC says that is

Monday - Cloudy with a we don't have a clue forecast for rain.

Stick to local.

[OntarioWeatherService]

Let me put it into perspective why I am the way I am with other sites.


I am in Meteorology school. I am learning things I already knew but still in the process of the school. It is easy, and I am skating by with A's. The problem with me and other people forecasting Southern California is the climate.

Let's name them. "Southern California just has sunny skies! How hard is it?"

I hear this all the time. Most certainly not true.

Santa Ana Winds
Downslope winds
Upslope winds
Mountain waves
Monsoonal moisture
Summer Vorts
Winter Vorts
Cold core storms
Strong jet dynamics
onshore flow
Eddy
Marine layer
Mountains - variation of temperatures and pressures
Deserts
Coast
Valleys
Thermal Low
Fires - particles in fires are good for prediction of heavier storms by their content.
Offshore Islands.
I'm sure there is MUCH MORE, but you get the idea.

Someone not from Southern California should take a Meteorology course designed to forecast Southern California based on all of those. See what I mean? That's why I don't trust NWS/Accuweather/TWC or anyone not of the area.