Young Hikers Missing in Joshua Tree Since Thursday [7/27/17]

[RichardK]

2PM "Lower Covington" Ping: 34.0477, -116.3255 (likely inferred from Cell Tower data)

4PM "Above Quail Springs" Ping: 34.0299, -116.2605 (likely inferred from Cell Tower data)

"Final location" of those poor kids: 34.1017, -116.2211

Ric

Hi Ric - I plotted these ping locations on the topo map. Something is very wrong. The 2PM and 4PM points are nearly 4 miles apart straight line over rugged terrain. They are 5 to 7 miles from the final location. It is not physically possible for anyone to cover that distance on foot in a couple of hours.

What were these pings? Attempts to make calls or just "keep alive" signals? If the phone did not send GPS co-ordinates, then are we not in the same situation as Bill Ewasko? We would know only a distance to a tower and not a direction. I assume that this area still has cell coverage from only the Serin Drive tower.

[Ric Capucho]

2PM "Lower Covington" Ping: 34.0477, -116.3255 (likely inferred from Cell Tower data)

4PM "Above Quail Springs" Ping: 34.0299, -116.2605 (likely inferred from Cell Tower data)

"Final location" of those poor kids: 34.1017, -116.2211

Ric

Hi Ric - I plotted these ping locations on the topo map. Something is very wrong. The 2PM and 4PM points are nearly 4 miles apart straight line over rugged terrain. They are 5 to 7 miles from the final location. It is not physically possible for anyone to cover that distance on foot in a couple of hours.

What were these pings? Attempts to make calls or just "keep alive" signals? If the phone did not send GPS co-ordinates, then are we not in the same situation as Bill Ewasko? We would know only a distance to a tower and not a direction. I assume that this area still has cell coverage from only the Serin Drive tower.

Hi Richard,

Those ping locations truly were calculated by whoever the cell phone provider was (I think AT&T) and were presumably the trigger for the SAR people to start scouring other areas of the Park.

And yes, there are (from memory) about four miles as the crow flies between the Lower Covington ping and the Above Quail Springs ping which translates more realistically into five brutal zig-zag ground miles through SWC in just two hours. Tough, but doable by a fit 21 year old. Well, maybe.

Others here might have been more sceptical as to the reliability of the calculated ping locations, but the authorities seemed to take them pretty much at face value; they drew search boxes around those ping locations and swarmed all over them.

And before we get all upset, the truth is that those poor kids were long gone, and, other than delaying closure for the two families, it was no hurt no foul. A waste of resources, yes, but nothing more.

We should take the conversation as to how this new ping information might relate to Bill to the thread on him as someone closer to the Orbeso or Nguyen families might find us a bit insensitive to discuss it here. See you over there.

Ric

[cynthia23]

I agree with you that almost certainly, both Orbeso and Nguyen were in their final location, and dead, by the time the search began. But there isn't, likely can't be, total certainty about that. I doubt the coroner will be able to establish anything, unfortunately. It is faintly possible one or both were still alive during the search process. People have sometimes survived for a surprisingly long time under these conditions (though the majority quickly die, of course--witness the poor Dutch couple who died at JTNP within just a few hours.)

It's too late to help Orbeso and Nguyen, but obviously there will be future SAR missions at JTNP and elsewhere. When they happen, it's crucial for SAR personnel to understand whether cell phone signals are at all a remotely reliable piece of info. It appears from this, that they can provide misleading info. Who knows, these cell phone data may have influenced JOSAR to ignore certain pieces of info as not 'fitting in' with the supposed cell locations.

Given that, I definitely think there should be a review of this matter, not to assign 'blame' (I don't doubt all involved were doing their best, in some case with superhuman effort) but to refine SAR best practices and save future lives.

[RichardK]

The case has taken a very unfortunate turn.

http://www.kesq.com/news/missing-joshua ... 642178156#

[Ed]

I always thought it was the most likely scenario. Which is not to say I held to it with any degree of confidence, simply that I assigned a higher probability to it than the many other scenarios, in large part because I believed some scenarios were very unlikely and others would have resulted in the hikers being found much earlier, with such an early and intensive SAR effort.

I am speculating, but Orbeso was at the age when schizophrenia commonly occurs. It is a terrible experience both for the person and the people who care for him/her. People want to maintain contact and be supportive, but also have to withdraw to some extent for their own sake. If this was the case, Nguyen could have been torn between the two alternatives, and may have miscalculated.

[Ric Capucho]

http://cms.sbcounty.gov/sheriff/MediaCenter/SheriffPressReleases/PressReleasesfor2017/October/JoshuaTree-MissingHikersLocated.aspx

The Sheriff’s press release.

Horrible.

Ric

[cynthia23]

Oh my God, that's horrific.

I know I brought this possibility (of planned murder-suicide) forward early in the thread, but seeing this now, I want to somehow find some way of changing reality to something less terrible. I know this sounds crazy, but is it possible that it wasn't a planned murder but rather some act brought about by heat stroke? Could he have brought the gun along as 'protection'--some folks do that--with nothing more in mind than a normal hike, and when they got lost and dehydrated, killed them both as some kind of crazy idea of 'it's better to die this way than a slow agonizing death' ? I know that's nuts ... but some elements of this STILL don't make sense--why did they hike around all day first (i.e. the pings?)

And here's another bizarre element--why did the father give a public statement lauding his son for 'embracing' Nguyen and trying to 'protect' her in death, when he apparently saw the bodies? Surely he saw the gun and the gunshot wounds?

Horrible, horrible, horrible news.

[Florian]

And here's another bizarre element--why did the father give a public statement lauding his son for 'embracing' Nguyen and trying to 'protect' her in death, when he apparently saw the bodies? Surely he saw the gun and the gunshot wounds?

Remember the bodies had been there 3 months through the summer. I doubt any possible gunshot wounds would have been obvious. Even seeing a gun might not be an immediate red flag. As you mentioned before some people do bring guns on hikes and father may have known that. And if some in the party had suspected they may have tried to shield the father from inspecting too closely.

[cynthia23]

Yes, you're right about the deterioration of the bodies perhaps making the gunshot wounds not visible. And even if he saw the gun, perhaps it didn't seem odd to the father--although that in itself seems strange. The whole thing is just very, very strange and extremely sad. I wonder if we'll ever really know the whole story.

[Myth]

My first thought was something similar to cynthia23's - not a planned murder/suicide, but instead an act committed under duress. I thought of the story of David Coughlin ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_David_Coughlin ). Since Joseph Orbeso was described as a "survivalist" it is possible that he carried a gun for protection.

Of course, it could also be more sinister, that he laid his plans and lead her to a secluded place, up a small side canyon way into the backcountry, maybe trying to disappear. Unless more information comes to light we would likely never know. Since I did not know any of the involved, I do not want to give that theory much weight.

A tragic ending, regardless of circumstance.