I'm happy to report on my climb from Sunday, January 25:
The conditions were cold, clear and windy. We departed Humber Park at 7am and reached the summit around 1pm. Most of the first 4 miles featured only small stretches (10-20yds) of unavoidable ice on the narrow trail. We slowed down a little, using our poles to maintain balance. We frequently stopped and basked in the sunlight, shedding layers to stay dry and not overheat.
Then, when the trail cuts back North/Northeast toward Wellman's divide, there were much longer chunks of trail covered in compacted snow and ice. During these sections, the micro spikes were a life saver. We easily maintained pace and trudged on. This 1 mile portion plus the last 2.4mi stretch on the Deer Springs Trail to the final junction before the summit were very exposed to the wind from the east and thus, very cold. I used my infrared thermometer gun every time we stopped, and we never saw air temps above 36ºF not accounting for wind chill.
The last third of a mile to the peak featured snow that was far less compacted than the icy trail leading up to it, and far less visible. The peak itself had gusts of 40+ mph, forcing us to scale the boulders to avoid losing balance while posing for pictures. Just a few minutes in those conditions was enough to force us rest in the small shelter to eat lunch and regenerate body heat for about 20 minutes.
In summary, no need for snow shoes, and even crampons would have likely been too tedious to take on and off to accommodate for the trail's variety of coverage. Micro spikes are highly recommended, though a few hikers got by without, albeit much slower. Poles and gloves are also highly recommended. Total time in these conditions for my first summiting MSJ: 10hrs, 6 up and 4 down including stops.
I would say the forecast provided at the URL below was very accurate, esp. for the 8,000ft and 10,000ft elevations. They may have gotten a couple inches of snow in the last 24 hours. Also looks windy on Saturday.
http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/ ... casts/2500
